Dem
47
GOP
53
After two terms in the House, which bookend a stint as Secretary of the Interior, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT) has decided (once again) that he's had enough, and that he will retire at the end of this term.
In the letter that is addressed to Zinke's constituents, and that he posted to social media, the Representative says that his military career has left him with injuries that have already required several surgeries, and that will require several more, and that he no longer has it in him to devote 100% to the job. We think that's likely the truth, or at least part of it. However, we would be remiss if we did not point out that: (1) It's also not a fun time to be a member of Congress right now, especially since you pretty much have to do whatever your party tells you to do, and (2) In the past, Zinke has been a grifter par excellence, and there's a lot more money in lobbying and other "opportunities" than in collecting the $174,000 paid to a backbencher in the House.
Zinke's home state of Montana is red, of course, but it's not as red as you might think. Remember, first of all, that until last year, one of the two senators was Democrat Jon Tester. And then, recall that Montana picked up a House seat after the most recent census, and ended up with a district map that creates one safe Republican seat, the R+15 MT-02, and one not entirely safe Republican seat, the R+5 MT-01. It is the latter that Zinke is vacating.
What that means is that, in a wave-type year, the seat might just be flippable. The Democratic bench is thin, as all of the statewide and federal officeholders right now are Republicans. Still, maybe the blue team gets lucky and finds a diamond in the rough; four folks have filed for that primary, with the deadline for any other aspirants arriving tomorrow.
What would really help the Democrats is if the Republican nominee is crazypants. The donkeys might get their wish. The frontrunner, barring any unexpected developments, is right-wing radio talker Aaron Flint. He's a veteran, which is a plus in Montana. But he's also fringy; he loves to relitigate the 2020 election, and to declare climate change to be a hoax. Undoubtedly Flint will have Donald Trump's endorsement. Based on Flint's announcement video, it seems he's primarily going to run against... Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D-New York City). The other person in the primary is former state senator Dr. Al Olszewski, who is a perennial candidate.
It would have helped the Democrats here if Tester had decided to run this year to try to get his old job back, but he took a pass. Still, whatever candidate the blue team nominates has at least a puncher's chance. (Z)