Mar.06

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

In Congress: How Will the Slate of Senate Candidates in Montana Shake Out?

We wrote yesterday about how Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) manipulated the system, waiting until the very last minute to announce his retirement, such that only his handpicked successor had time to file paperwork before the deadline arrived. This not only kept any serious Republican from jumping in, it also meant that serious Democrats had no opportunity to ponder whether they might like to take a shot at what is now an open seat.

This obvious, undemocratic chicanery is not going over well in Montana, including with many Republicans. Montana is a pretty red state, at R+10, but its redness is not the same redness as in, say, Mississippi. There is much that is populist and much that is libertarian in Montana politics, with the result that while the Democrats have no real bench in some double-digit R states (like, say, the R+11 Mississippi), they actually do have a bench in Big Sky Country. To wit, Jon Tester represented the state in the U.S. Senate until January of last year, while each of the two governors before the current one—Brian Schweitzer (70) and Steve Bullock (59)—were Democrats, and are still young enough to run.

To review, then, these are the circumstances: (1) the Republican frontrunner in the Senate race, Kurt Alme, now has an odor attached to him that may linger until Election Day, (2) there is at least some reason to believe this is a wave year, (3) the Democrats do have viable candidates to challenge Alme, and (4) if there was any hope at all of a flip, the preferred candidate of the Democrats would be awash in money, from all corners of the United States. Given all of this, we thought we'd take a look at how the blue team might play this. We see four basic possibilities:

1. Back the Democrat: This is the safest option, of course. There are currently three Democrats whose paperwork is filed and approved. Alani Bankhead is a woman, and a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Air Force. Michael Black Wolf is a member of the Fort Belknap Indian Community. He has the endorsement of state Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy (D), but will never get the endorsement of Donald Windbag. Reilly Neill served one term in the state legislature. One can see the potential appeal of all three of these folks.
   
   There are also two candidates who have filed paperwork, but the paperwork is still in process. These are Michael Hummert, who is a perennial candidate, and Christopher Kehoe, who appears to teach acting at the University of Montana, Missoula. It is rather harder to see the appeal of these two candidates. In any event, the national and state Democratic organs largely do not involve themselves in primaries, but they will certainly get involved in the general. And if the blue team somehow gets lucky, and one of these people proves to be the second coming of, well, Jon Tester, then that involvement could be substantial. As we noted yesterday, a little money goes a long way in Montana.
   
   
2. Back the Independent: Also noted in yesterday's item is that the non-Republican with the highest name recognition in this race is actually Seth Bodnar, who was president of the University of Montana until January of this year. He is something of a dream candidate for the Democrats. Bodnar graduated West Point, and then was a Rhodes Scholar. He has two Master's degrees, one in History and one in Social Policy. He served in the 101st Airborne Division (the famed "Screaming Eagles") and as a Green Beret and is currently a lieutenant colonel in the Montana National Guard.
   
   Bodnar's politics are not exactly well-known, but what is known is that he considered running as a Democrat in this race, and was warned off by Tester, who said that the Democratic "brand" was always a huge obstacle for him to overcome. Obviously, this tells us that Bodnar is not a closet MAGA man, and is presumably either a centrist or is left of center. That said, as somewhat of a black box, he can define himself, rather than letting the (D) or (R) do it for him. Further, not only does an (I) allow him to escape the Democratic "brand," it also gives (R)'s who simply won't vote (D), but who also don't want to support the current administration, an alternative.
   
   We would guess that, either now, or once the primaries are over, the various Democratic organs will line up behind Bodnar. He clearly has the best hopes of victory, along the same lines as Dan Osborn (I) in Nebraska or Sen. Angus King (I) in Maine. It is worth noting that in every one of King's three successful U.S. Senate campaigns, there was a Democratic nominee, but that most Maine Democrats voted for the blue team's "real" candidate, namely King.
   
   
3. The Murkowski Maneuver: It is possible that Tester, Schweitzer and/or Bullock took a pass because they did not want to square off against a sitting Republican senator in a red state, and that they would have gotten in if they had known what Daines planned to do. If so, all is not lost. Montana does allow write-in candidates; they just have to submit a letter of intent 90 or more days before the general election. Most readers will recall that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) was elected to her second term this way, after various party machinations left her on the outside looking in. And "Murkowski" is much harder to spell than "Tester" or "Bullock." Probably a little easier than "Schweitzer," though.
   
   
4. The Biden Maneuver: In Montana, if a party's U.S. Senate nominee drops out after the primary, but before the general election, then state law (specifically, MCA 13-10-327) empowers the state party committee to choose a replacement.
   
   If the Democrats wanted to travel this path, they would first have to offer the winner of the Democratic primary something to make it worth their while to drop out (e.g., "How would you like to be named Ambassador to the Bahamas the next time a Democrat is president?"). Then, that person would have to come up with a plausible non-political reason to drop out, like they have a sick granny to take care of, or something like that. If the reason for dropping out appeared to be political in nature, then the Democrats would look just as bad as the Republicans do right now, and would cede any "they gamed the system" moral high ground. Then, once the actual nominee jumped ship, one of the high-profile Democrats would have to pretend to be drafted into service, with great reluctance, for the good of the party/the state/mom/apple pie/whatever.

We don't expect that either of the more unorthodox possibilities—#3 and #4—will come to pass. That said, nobody expected the original versions of the Murkowski Maneuver and the Biden Maneuver to happen until they did. So, it's at least worth noting them, just in case. We do think #2 is very plausible, though. And so, this race could end up being one to watch, when just 48 hours ago it seemed to be as boring as a Trump State of the Union Address. (Z)