Mar.09

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Trump Is Facing Numerous Risks He Can't Control

What a difference a few months make. Last fall, Democrats were despondent. Donald Trump looked all-powerful and the future looked bleak. That has changed in the past few months for various reasons that have given Democrats some hope.

The midterm elections are almost never kind to the president's party, even under the best of conditions. But the level of unkindness depends on how popular the president is. This year Donald Trump has many vulnerabilities, some of which he can't do much about. Here is a partial list:

• Iran War Goes South: Trump's current goal is unconditional surrender and regime change. The ayatollahs have a pretty good idea of what is going to happen to them if they give up power and will fight to the last mullah. If Trump continues the war until they surrender, it will go on for months (or years). That will generate more than a little opposition at home.
  
  
• Gas Prices Skyrocket: Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquified gas travels. This is already affecting the price of gas at the pump. Here is what Gas Buddy is showing as the national average. Your mileage may vary:
  
  
  
  

  Notice the huge spike at the right. In mid-January, the average price was $2.75/gal. Now it is $3.44/gal., and higher in some states. That is an increase of 25% in 2 months. Gas usage is fairly inelastic. If you need, say, 10 gallons/wk. to get to work and back, you are now paying $30/mo. more than 2 months ago. A lot of people notice that kind of increase, especially when affordability is on everyone's mind.
  
  Nate Silver likes to make models of everything statistical. He has collected data from betting sites and elsewhere and made a model of where gas prices will be at the end of March. Here are his predictions.
  
  
  
  Oil prices hit $105/barrel yesterday and show no sign of going down. As you probably know, there is a Website for everything, so also for oil prices. If you want real-time tracking, try oilprice.com.
  
  And there could be more to come. The refineries in the Middle East are still running, but the oil companies are running out of room to store product. Within a fairly short time they will run out of tanks and be forced to stop production. Refineries are complicated machines and cannot be switched on and off on a dime, even if the Strait is soon opened. Trump has said he will provide naval escorts for tankers. The oil companies are not stupid. They know that having a destroyer sail next to a tanker does not guarantee that if Iran fires 100 drones at the tanker, the destroyer will be able to shoot all of them down. Even a few hits could be a disaster. Besides, without proper insurance, no oil company will risk it.
  
  If gas prices are not back to $2.75/gal. by November, the Democrats will talk about little else than: "Trump's war of choice—started without congressional approval—is costing you big bucks and it is the fault of the Republicans who are too cowardly to say 'NO!' to him. Elect Democrats and we will say: 'NO!'"
  
  Oil prices are funny. They go up like a rocket and come down like a feather. If prices hit, say, $4/gal., they will not suddenly go back to $2.75/gal. the week the Strait is reopened, especially if refineries have to be restarted. Even if crude prices go down, oil companies will be faced with a choice: cut gas prices quickly or lower them ever-so-gradually. Cutting prices quickly may win over a few new customers, but dropping them like a feather increases profits. The bean counters like increased profits. And we are assuming that Iran doesn't actually destroy any tankers, with the corresponding ecological disaster. The ayatollahs don't want that, but if that is the only way to stay in power, they might try to do it as a last-ditch effort.
  
  

• Inflation Comes Roaring Back: Increased gas prices will add to inflation, but the war could increase inflation in other ways as well. Oil is used for heating and as a feedstock for making plastic, fertilizer, textiles, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, asphalt and more. If there is a shortage of it, these various industries will bid the price up for the oil that is available. That will also increase inflation. People don't like inflation, as Kamala Harris discovered the hard way in late 2024.
  
  
• Job Losses Surge: The latest jobs report showed a net loss of 92,000 jobs. If the war goes on and oil supplies are cut, the job losses could increase as industries dependent on (cheap) oil cut production and lay off workers. And Trump is planning to reinstate the tariffs the Supreme Court nixed, only using a different emergency law. That will also hurt the job market as consumers cut back and buy less stuff, causing manufacturers to make less stuff.
  
  AI could also cost jobs. Last Thursday, Trump signed an XO stating that states may not regulate AI. That may or may not stick in court, but it may make AI firms feel more aggressive and companies may embrace AI to do work previously done by people, allowing them to fire the people. This will give the fired workers plenty of free time to do other things—like vote on Nov. 3.
  
  Few people, other than older economists remember the 1970s, when the Arab oil embargo caused oil prices to quadruple within a few months. This led to stagflation, in which the economy stagnated, jobs were lost, and prices went up all at the same time. The problem lasted for years. The world is less dependent on oil from the Middle East now, but the conditions now are similar to then, if not quite as serious. The Fed solved the problem by jacking up interest rates to choke the economy, with unemployment hitting 11%. If anything approaching that happens, Republicans are toast in November.
  
  
• Stock Market Plunges: The S & P 500 closed Friday at 6,738, down from 7,002 on Jan. 28, a 4% drop. If oil shoots up, the market will shoot down even more. That will affect Trump's ego and peoples' 401(k) accounts. A possible combination of inflation, lower stocks, and a fewer jobs is the perfect storm—for the Democrats—since they can conveniently blame all of it on Trump and the Republicans' refusal to rein him in.
  
  
• Democratic Enthusiasm Explodes: Democrats are woke awake. They have won huge victories in multiple special elections in the past year and did well in Texas and North Carolina primaries last week. They are fired up and can't wait to vote. Trump may not have noticed this, but his pollster, Tony Fabrizo, certainly has. He might not dare tell Trump directly, but he will certainly tell Susie Wiles, who will then have to somehow convey this to Trump, however gently.
  
  
• Key Swing Groups Swing: Latino voters, Black voters, and young voters swung unexpectedly to Trump in 2024. They are rapidly swinging back. They were promised is lower prices on Day 1, not a war on day 400 that will increase prices. They are hopping mad. Another group the Republicans may have trouble with is women because they still tend to do most of the grocery shopping and see that prices have gone up, not down, since Jan. 20, 2025. A CNN poll in January showed that 76% of women said the economy is poor. That could be way above 80% before long. That is an ominous sign, separate from the young Black and Latino men who are sensitive to prices as well as to the job market.
  
  
• America Firsters Bail: Trump explicitly ran on "no more forever wars." For some voters, that was the reason they voted for him. God help him if the war in Iran is still simmering in the fall. If he pulls out in the early fall and claims victory, that might not be enough, especially if prices are way up and jobs and the stock market are way down.

In short, there is an awful lot that could go wrong between now and November. It doesn't have to all happen to sink the Republicans' boat, but if some of these issues have gone way wrong, that will give the Democrats something to talk about all day. (V)