Dem
47
GOP
53
There is some amount of scuttlebutt that the decline and fall of Kristi Noem, coupled with the imminent promotion of Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) as her replacement, might be enough to get the DHS shutdown resolved, and to allow the department to fully reopen.
The political calculus here is really pretty simple. There is very little possibility of Senate Republicans backing a bill that would limit the powers of ICE, and even less chance of Donald Trump signing such a bill into law. Meanwhile, ICE has receded from the headlines, for at least the last 2-3 weeks, while the summer travel season will soon be upon us, making the TSA shutdowns much more of a problem for voters.
There is no question, mind you, that most Senate Democrats want to hold the line here, either because they themselves believe ICE needs to be reined in, or because they believe their voters think that. However, "most Senate Democrats" is not "all Senate Democrats." Sen. John Fetterman (D?-PA) has already been voting with the Republicans on this, and a few other moderates (e.g., Sen. Peter Welch, D-VT) have shown a willingness to cross the aisle, too. It only takes seven of them, assuming the Republicans remain unified, to get to 60 votes and cloture.
Reportedly, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is not in favor of surrendering, but he may not be willing to whip votes to get his way, and he may tell his caucus to vote as they see fit. We think that is a mistake, politically, but for some reason, Chuck didn't call us to ask for our opinion. (Z)