Dem
47
GOP
53
The somewhat scant hopes that Democrats had of maybe flipping Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat suffered a near-fatal blow yesterday when Republican Clay Fuller was picked to advance to the general election, with about 35% of the vote.
Fuller, a former prosecutor, is not exactly sane, at least not by the standards that prevailed 10+ years ago. He is, after all, MAGA enough that he got Donald Trump's endorsement. But the real crazypants candidate, the one the Democrats surely wanted to face, was former state Senator Colton Moore. He is so odious that the Republicans in the state legislature eventually banned him from appearing or speaking on the floor of the state House. Moore got less than 12% of the vote yesterday, to finish a distant third.
We obviously don't know too much about Fuller, but we know that he's leaning into a law and order platform, something that white Southerners tend to eat up. He's also a veteran, and he's outspoken about mass deportations, undoubtedly because of all those Latinos and Latinas who sneak across Georgia's border with Mexico. Perhaps most importantly, Fuller led all the other Republican candidates (except the one who self-funded) in fundraising. That means he's either the establishment candidate, or he knows how to play the game, or both.
A Democrat also advanced to the runoff (in what was a jungle primary, and could theoretically have produced two Republican candidates). That Democrat, who got 37% of the vote, is Shawn Harris. He is also a veteran (a retired brigadier general) and is Black. There are districts where identity politics might give Harris a puncher's chance, but the 11.9% Black GA-14 is not among those. He's running the kind of campaign that Californians often see, albeit with the parties flipped: "I'm not really a Democrat, I'm a Georgian." Maybe so, but there's still going to be a (D) next to his name on the ballot, and that's what matters to most voters.
The race that Democrats will look to for inspiration here is the upset that Democrat Conor Lamb pulled off over Republican Rick Saccone in 2018. That was also a special election triggered by the resignation of a controversial Republican member of the House, and also happened while Trump's approval rating was mired in the high 30s. However, Saccone was and is looney tunes, and would go on to participate in the 1/6 insurrection and brag about it on social media. As we note above, Fuller is not a nut bar, at least not to that extent. Further, PA-18 was R+11 back then, and Lamb won by less than 1,000 votes out of nearly a quarter-million cast. GA-14, by contrast, is R+19. You never know what will happen until it happens, especially with an unpopular war underway, but it's basically impossible to squint one's eyes and find a plausible theory for how Harris could win this thing, as matters currently stand. If Fuller dies, or turns out to be a pedophile, or says something over-the-top racist on a hot microphone, then... maybe. But even then, maybe not, given how "forgiving" MAGA voters tend to be of MAGA politicians.
The other federal race of interest yesterday was a couple of states over, in Mississippi, as Democrats in MS-02 decided between the old warhorse Rep. Bennie Thompson and the young colt Evan Turnage. And the choice is... Thompson, in a rout, with over 85% of the vote. We would suggest not reading too much into this one. Thompson, thanks to his work with the 1/6 Committee, is a star. Not quite on the order of the late John Lewis, but at least somewhere in Lewis' galaxy. And he is also known for being very good at constituent services. So, we at least are not taking this as a sign that Democrats (or Southern Democrats, or Black Democrats) have decided that old and proven is better than young and exciting. This race is something of a unicorn, and cannot really be generalized to other races across the country.
There is also one other election worth noting. The seat representing Carroll District 7 in the New Hampshire state House has been vacant since Republican Glenn Cordelli resigned back in November of last year. He did not give a reason for his resignation; perhaps he was dissatisfied with the salary paid to legislators—$100/year. In any event, a special election was held yeaterday to pick a replacement, and the winner was Democrat Bobbi Boudman, who beat Republican Dale Fincher, 52% to 48%. This is notable because Trump won the district by 26 points in 2024. So, it continues the Democrats' string of way overperforming in elections this year. In this case, of course, the swing was a whopping 30 points.
And that's the election news for now. Next week it's Illinois, where there are competitive primaries on both sides of the race to replace Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), along with a few interesting House races. Thereafter, it's basically a desert until May 5 (except for the Wisconsin Supreme Court election April 7 and the special election in NJ-11 for the seat left vacant when now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill, D-NJ, resigned from the House). (Z)