Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump is turning the screws on Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to either end the filibuster altogether or at least require a Jimmy Stewart-style talking filibuster, with Democrats maybe reading Macbeth, a fun play about a power-mad tyrant who meets his end at the hand of some guy not of woman born. Thune is firmly resisting and Trump is getting angrier by the day. What Trump really wants is to pass the SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to vote, would ban most absentee voting, and would also implement more things meant to suppress the vote. Thune is taking a lot of flak for his stand, but is not budging. Trump has even said he will not sign any bill until the Act is on his desk, but Thune is unmovable.
It is not even clear if the SAVE America Act will really be that helpful to the Republicans in elections going forward. Trump has this mental model that the people who lack government ID are mostly poor Black voters in big cities who vote for Democrats. There really aren't a lot of data about that. It is estimated that 9% of eligible voters don't have proof of citizenship, but who they are is less sure. Trump's mental models aren't always on target. He thinks, for example, that Medicaid is for poor Black people in cities. That is true, but it also helps millions of poor whites in rural areas—his base.
A second problem for Trump if the Act does pass is that Democrats will be super motivated to run information campaigns and ground campaigns to help urban voters get birth certificates. They will explain to people what the process is, provide free rides to the offices that issue the documents, and collect money to pay the associated fees. This is much easier in densely packed cities than in rural areas. Also, blue states and cities will increase opening hours and remove obstacles to getting birth certificates while red ones probably will not. Trump does not realize that if the Act passes, there will be an instant and strong reaction to it that may end up neutralizing the effect or even backfiring on him.
Why is Thune so willing to stand up to Trump when almost no one else is? Thune is no firebreather, after all. There are four basic reasons and all of them are fairly prosaic. First, the votes simply aren't there. To institute any kind of change to the filibuster, he needs to get 50 senators and the veep on board. Apparently, he doesn't have 50 votes yet and doesn't expect to. Calling a vote and coming up short makes him look weak. That reduces his power. He doesn't want that just to please Trump.
Second, and more complicated, is 2029. Thune has been around the track a couple of times, can read polls, and knows there is a ferocious reaction to Donald Trump now. He probably has mentally conceded the House and is doing his best to save the Senate, even though that is far from a sure thing. But he plans to stay in the Senate after the 2028 election and knows that if he weakens or kills the filibuster, if the Democrats get the trifecta in 2028, they will ram through a large number of bills he really, really does not want, including bills on democracy, voting, redistricting, abortion, guns, and much more. He hopes that if he maintains the filibuster now, it will be harder for the Democrats to weaken or abolish it in 2029. His argument will be: "Look, folks, when we had the chance to abolish it and ram through stuff you hate, we didn't do it. So we are now asking for you to grant us the same mercy we granted you in 2026." It could work.
Third, while the filibuster is a tool of the minority, it also serves a useful purpose for the majority by allowing them to walk both sides of the street on controversial issues. For example, if a staunch anti-choice voter asks Thune (or any other Republican) why a bill to ban all abortions has not been brought to the floor of the Senate, then Thune (or that other Republican) can reply, "Gee, I sure would like to do that, but there's no point because no Democrats would vote for it, and so we'd never get to 60 votes." If the threshold for passage is 50, by contrast, then the 53 Republicans in the Senate all of a sudden have far less cover for punting on positions that a vocal minority cares passionately about, but that would be poisonous with the majority of the electorate.
Fourth, but minor, is that trying to reestablish the filibuster is a complicated legislative procedure that would allow the Democrats to effectively shut down the Senate for weeks, even though in the end, they would lose. It is not worth it to Thune to waste weeks for a bill that might not be all that useful after all.
One new development yesterday is that former Senate institutionalist John Cornyn (R-TX) decided to sell his soul in a desperate effort to get Trump's endorsement in the Senate runoff. Cornyn said: "Hell, my soul isn't worth much, really." OK, he didn't say that but he might as well have. For his whole time in the Senate, almost 24 years, he has supported the filibuster as a way to keep a narrow majority from ramming through controversial legislation. And since he has been in the minority many times, he knows how important that is. Now he desperately wants Trump's endorsement so he threw his long-standing principles in the bonfire and sided with Trump.
He is also stupider than we thought he was. He didn't have to do this. Trump didn't have any cards. Cornyn could have held fast and dared Trump to endorse AG Ken Paxton (R), a guy who has taken corruption to a whole new level. If Trump had done that, that would have made the seat a toss-up or worse. Trump might bluster, but he really doesn't want to lose the Senate, so in the end he would have had to endorse Cornyn anyway. By giving up his last shred of integrity, Cornyn has probably ensured his victory in the primary but at the price of now being a total phony. Democrat James Talarico could try to use this against Cornyn in the general election. Maybe that will work, but maybe not. Texans love phonies, if they are bold and brash enough about it. (V)