Mar.12

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How Does It End?

There are three big questions about the war in Iran:

1. Why did it start?
2. When will it end?
3. How will it end?

The most salient one is the third one. During the Iraq war, Gen. David Petraeus famously asked: "Tell me how this ends?" It was a good question then and still is.

Various media outlets are venturing guesses about how it ends. Here's one take from The New York Times:

• Regime Change: This is the most optimistic one. In it, there are mass uprisings all over Iran against the regime and attempts to snuff the protests out are thwarted by missile and drone attacks on police, army, and Revolutionary Guard bases and personnel. Airdropping firearms and other weapons to the people is also conceivable. This is very unlikely, but in 1979, the Shah of Iran had an absolutely iron grip on power and the idea that a bunch of bearded old men who time-traveled in from the 7th century could beat his police state was inconceivable, too.
  
  
• Regime modification: Also optimistic is that a (tacit) deal is made with the regime: They can stay in power but have to give up their nuclear program and weapons that could threaten Israel and their Arab neighbors. With enough destruction and punishment from the air, the ayatollahs might find the deal better than complete extermination. This scenario is most likely if U.S. and allied forces can capture Khark (Kharg) Island, 16 miles off the coast. It is the terminal for 90% of Iran's oil exports and the source of most of its income. Capturing it would require a naval blockade and landing troops on the island. Risky, but not impossible.
  
  
• Chaos: Another possibility is that the regime holds on without any deal but is greatly weakened and has to devote a lot of effort at keeping the country together, fighting off secessionist movements in multiple provinces. There could also be leadership fights internally that sap the regime's strength.
  
  
• Failed State: This is the worst of all. Iran could become a failed state, with no centralized power and various militias fighting other militias and civil order breaking down. The model here is Libya, but on a much larger scale. This would invite foreign intervention, not all of it benign, and cause millions of refugees to flood neighboring countries. The wealthier ones might make it to the U.S. and request asylum.

Too pessimistic for you? How about NOTUS? They asked eight Middle East experts what they think Iran will look like in a year. Here are brief summaries of their guesses:

• Suzanne Maloney (The Brookings Institution): The regime will probably survive and be less capable of projecting power beyond Iran's borders, even with closer relationships with Russia and China. However, it will become more repressive and volatile at home to prevent a revolution. Ordinary Iranians will be poorer and more bitter.
  
  
• Ivo Daalder (former U.S. ambassador to NATO): The clerics will be overthrown by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and the country will be run by an unforgiving secular military dictator. The upside is that without Shiite ayatollahs running the show, Iran will be less toxic to the Sunni Arab countries in the neighborhood. However, the new regime will be focused like a laser on building nuclear weapons to avoid another attack by foreign powers like the current one.
  
  
• Mona Yacoubian (Center for Strategic and International Studies): There will be a rump regime that is more nakedly militaristic than the current one. However, even though there will be an ayatollah as Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guard will actually call all the shots. A free and democratic Iran is not in the cards.
  
  
• Jamie Fly (Freedom House): A free and democratic Iran would be nice but that cannot be achieved by bombing. It would require extremely good diplomacy and economic pressure. It is up to the Iranian people. (In other words, Fly doesn't have a clue.)
  
  
• Kori Schake (American Enterprise Institute): The Revolutionary Guard will be firmly entrenched and brutally repress the people. They have the guns and killed 30,000 people during the recent protests. They will kill as many as needed to gain and keep power.
  
  
• Uzra Zeya (Human Rights First): You can't bomb a country into democracy. Unless the U.S. changes its policies there is no hope for a free and democratic Iran.
  
  
• Kevan Harris (UCLA): The most likely outcome is a return to the status quo ante, but with a degraded infrastructure. The war will make people more patriotic and less accepting of foreign intervention. This will allow the regime to consolidate power.
  
  
• Linda Robinson (Council on Foreign Relations): The Iranian people will suffer from the physical and economic damage of the war. No one will come help them recover. It will push getting a stable and peaceful Middle East decades into the future.

Not a lot of seers see a peaceful and democratic Iran when this is over. Maybe the ayatollahs will continue to run the show, maybe the Revolutionary Guard will, but it won't be the people. Interestingly, no one thinks the Baby Shah, the exiled Reza Pahlavi, will have any role in the country's future, even though he is the only person who could possibly lead Iran into becoming a functioning democracy, albeit with him as the symbolic leader, like, say, King Charles III of the U.K.

One development no one mentioned is that Iran is now laying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. It is doubtful that they are carefully numbering each one and having it broadcast its GPS coordinates every few minutes. This means that when the military conflict is over, it will be necessary for minesweepers to find and neutralize them all. While the Strait is narrow, it isn't that narrow and it is 200-300' deep. If the minesweepers miss a few mines and some oil tanker gets blown to bits resulting in the mother of all oil spills, the results could be catastrophic for Iran and the whole world. (V)