Dem
47
GOP
53
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) is 81 and retiring. There is an intense battle to succeed him on the Democratic side, the only side that matters in this blue state. The main contenders are Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D-IL) and Reps. Robin Kelly (D-IL) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL). Stratton and Kelly are both Black and Krishnamoorthi is an Indian-American, so the next senator from Illinois will almost certainly be a person of color.
Another thing the three have in common is a hatred for ICE and Donald Trump's immigration policies. Stratton marched with protesters after ICE invaded Chicago. She is in favor of abolishing ICE altogether. Kelly wants to go further and abolish all of DHS. She also has campaigned on impeaching Kristi Noem, of flying bedroom fame, but that is a moot point now. Kelly said of ICE: "You can't wear masks. You have to have cameras on. You can't just kidnap people off the street. You can't just go to people's homes without a warrant." Krishnamoorthi was blocked by ICE agents when he tried to observe a detention center outside of Chicago. He is a moderate. Nevertheless, he said: "I'm a racial, religious and ethnic minority and an immigrant with 29 letters in my name. I care deeply about making sure that nobody gets otherized, whoever they are, including immigrants." In case you are wondering, his first name is Subramanian (hence the 29 letters) and he is a practicing Hindu.
For the most part, there is not a huge amount of difference between the three on most policy issues. One difference, however, is that Stratton has the strong financial backing of Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL). Many people see this election as a test of Pritzker's viability as a 2028 presidential nominee. If he can power Stratton to the Senate, that looks good for him. If he can't, well, not so good.
A major issue here is that Stratton and Kelly are both Black women. Stratton has Pritzker's millions, the endorsements of five senators, five representatives, most of the Democrats in the state legislature, and many outside groups. Kelly has the endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus and dozens of progressive elected Democrats from all over the country, including two senators and 54 representatives. Krishnamoorthi has the endorsement of 32 (mostly moderate) House Democrats.
Clearly there is a serious fragmentation here. Illinois does not have runoffs or ranked-choice voting. It's first-past-the-post. If each of the women gets 30% of the vote and Krishnamoorthi gets 40%, he wins outright. This shows (again) that first-past-the-post is not a good system anymore, since there are often multiple viable candidates.
The polls show Stratton and Krishnamoorthi in the lead, with some polls putting Stratton on top and some putting Krishnamoorthi on top. Kelly has not led in any poll.
Six Republicans are running for the GOP Senate nomination. We don't know why since they have no chance to win the general election. Ditto for the Republican nomination for governor to oppose popular and very well funded Pritzker.
There are also four hot primaries for vacant House seats. IL-02 is Kelly's seat. It is in the South Side of Chicago and D+18. There are 10 Democrats running, including Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, State Sens. Robert Peters and Willie Preston, and Jesse Jackson's son, Jesse Jackson Jr.
IL-07 is also a vacant seat due to the retirement of Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL). There are 13 Democrats in the mix here. That is hardly surprising in a D+34 district in the Chicago Loop area. There has been only one poll of the race and state Rep. La Shawn Ford is leading.
IL-08 is Krishnamoorthi's district. The district is in the Chicago suburbs and only D+5. The candidates include businessman Neil Khot, Hanover Park Trustee Yasmeen Bankole, tech consultant Junaid Ahmad, Cook County Board Commissioner Kevin Morrison and former 8th District Rep. Melissa Bean. There has been one poll and "Don't know" is the winner, with 68% of the (non-)vote.
IL-09 is the D+19 district of the retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky. It is in Chicago's northern suburbs. A staggering 15 Democrats filed to run here. Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss and content creator and leftist influencer Kat Abughazaleh are leading in the one poll of the race.
There are a few other local primaries in Illinois tomorrow. No other state is holding any primaries tomorrow. The next primaries up are Indiana and Ohio on May 5. (V)