Dem
47
GOP
53
...And they actually had a fair bit to say, in yesterday's primary elections.
We suppose we should start at the top, even though there was no drama there. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), running for reelection, was unopposed. He will face the Republican that everyone expected to win the four-way primary, state Sen. Darren Bailey, who took 53.5% of the vote. On the prediction market Kalshi, the GOP having chosen their candidate caused the party's odds of winning the governorship to drop from 12% to 9%. We think this is silly, and that the odds did not change one iota. They were 0% before the primary, and they're 0% now.
Even if the governor's races were uninteresting, the Senate primaries, for the soon-to-be-open seat of Dick Durbin (D), were real barnburners, though neither ended up quite as close as expected. On the Republican side, Illinois GOP chair Don Tracy is the pick, taking 39.8% of the vote, as compared to 22.9% for lawyer and political newbie Jeannie Evans, the second-place finisher. On the Democratic side, the voters favored the Pritzker-backed Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton (D), who outdistanced the more lefty Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D), 40.1% to 33.2%. Stratton, though not a far lefty, is still something of a bomb-thrower—check out this not-safe-for-work ad, brought to our attention by reader R.V. in Pittsburgh, PA:
R.V. adds "Before Donald Trump, an ad like this would be unheard of. Now, it's completely justifiable."
Stratton's success, particularly by such a comfortable margin, is a feather in the cap for Pritzker, and a boost to his presidential hopes. Meanwhile, in the likely event that she wins in the general, she'll become the 15th Black U.S. Senator in American history. At that point, Illinois, the only state to have sent three Black senators to Congress, will become the first state to have sent four Black senators. It will also become the second state (along with California) to have sent two Black women to the U.S. Senate. Good for Illinois!
There were also a few House districts of interest, starting with IL-02, which is being vacated by Rep. Robin Kelly (D), who finished in third place in the Democratic Senate primary. The Democratic voters in the district had a chance to re-nominate Jesse Jackson Jr., who held the seat a decade ago before getting enmeshed in a corruption scandal. Instead, they went with Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, who outpaced Jackson 40.4% to 29%. IL-02 is D+18 and 50% Black, so white guy Michael Scott Noack, who was unchallenged in the Republican primary, really doesn't need to bother campaigning. He's very moderate, and thinks ICE needs to be reined in and that there should be investment in green technology, so he wouldn't fit in with Mike and The Gang in D.C. anyhow.
IL-07 is one of the bluest districts in the country, at D+34, so Democrats came out of the woodwork once Rep. Danny Davis (D) announced his retirement. State Rep. La Shawn K. Ford came out on top in the 13-way race, with 23.9% of the vote. The Republican nominee will be Chad Koppie, who can also feel free to stay home. Koppie, a lifelong farmer, decided that 89 years of age is the perfect time to start a career in the House. Clearly he does not know a damn thing about American politics. Age 89 is when you start a career in the Senate, not the House.
IL-09 is also very blue. Not as blue as IL-07, but D+19 was still enough to spark a lot of interest from wannabe Democratic members of the House. This was the bright and shining outcome of the night for the Bernie/AOC wing of the party, as the progressive Mayor Daniel Biss (Evanston) took 29.4% of the vote to 26.1% for the also progressive influencer Kat Abughazaleh and 20.3% for the moderate state Sen. Laura Fine. The dominant issue here was Israel; Biss is Jewish and pro-Palestine independence, Abughazaleh is Palestinian and pro-Palestine independence, Fine is Jewish and pro-Israel and was supported by significant funding from AIPAC.
There are five districts in Illinois that are close enough to be considered swing districts. They are IL-06 (D+3), IL-08 (D+5), IL-13 (D+5), IL-14 (D+3) and IL-17 (D+3). However, four of the five are held by Democrats, and given the lean of the districts, the benefits of incumbency, and the likely blue oceanic event in November (somewhere between a ripple and a tsunami), those four are all pretty safe. The fifth is IL-08, which is the seat Krishnamoorthi decided to vacate to take his (now failed) shot at the U.S. Senate. Moderate former representative Melissa L. Bean beat the more progressive Junaid Ahmed, 31.8% to 26.7%, to win the Democratic nomination. The Republican will be Jennifer Davis, who is an entrepreneur and a moderate. She has a better chance than any other Republican we've mentioned so far, but not a lot better. Being a former representative isn't the same thing as being a sitting representative, but it's close. Between that and the other factors favoring the blue team, all the race ratings have this one as solidly Democratic, even though it's technically in swing territory (which means "anywhere from R+5 to D+5").
If you're looking for overall themes here, the obvious one is that "safe" candidates were generally preferred. This is not out of character for Illinois; Democrats there tend to be pretty moderate. This is, after all, the state that gave us Barack Obama, Roland Burris, Tammy Duckworth, Durbin, Rod Blagojevich, Pat Quinn and Pritzker. None of these folks is a hardcore leftist. Or even a mediumcore leftist. Still, it's a bit more data for the pile that suggests that Democratic voters are so eager to defang Trump and MAGA, they don't want to take any risks in 2026. Maybe not in 2028, either.
There were also three special elections for state legislatures yesterday, to fill seats left vacant by death or resignation. Two of those were in Pennsylvania. In HD-79, Andrea Verobish (R) triumphed over Caleb McCoy (D) by 15 points, 57% to 42%. and in HD-193, Catherine Wallen (R) came out ahead of Todd Crawley (D) by 19.4 points, 59.7% to 40.3%. The two Republican wins mean that the Pennsylvania state House is again tied, 100D-100R, though there are three vacancies, and two of them are in blue districts. So, the tie won't last.
There was also an election for the Virginia House of Delegates, HD-98. In that one, Andrew Rice (R) defeated Cheryl Smith (D) by 25 points, 62.5% to 37.5%. And, as a bonus, we'll note there was also a special election in Louisiana over the weekend, to fill the seat representing HD-69. There, Paul Sawyer (R) defeated Angela Roberts (D) by 13 points, 53% to 40%.
So, that's four wins for the GOP. The Republicans have to be pretty happy about that, right? Maybe so. But maybe not. All four districts are ruby red. Democrats actually thought they had a chance to flip the seat in Virginia, since that district voted for Trump by "only" 14.6 points. Who knows what they were smoking, since the actual result was 10.4 points more lopsided in the Republicans' favor, which is a rarity these days.
In the other three districts, however, the shift was in the other direction. Louisiana HD-69 went for Trump by 20.1, so Saturday's result was a shift of 7.1 points in the Democrats' direction. Pennsylvania HD-79 went for Trump by 32.6 points, so yesterday's result was a shift of 17.6 points in the Democrats' direction. And Pennsylvania HD-193 went for Trump by 37.8 points, so yesterday's result was a shift of 18.4 points in the Democrats' direction. So, outside of that one contest, this year's (and last year's) overall trend of medium-to-big shifts toward the Democrats held. Hence the possibility that the 4-0 outcome for the GOP wasn't quite the good news for them that it first appears to be.
We'll pass along one last bit of election-related news, since we are on the subject anyhow. Yesterday was the deadline for Texas candidates for office to withdraw from their runoff elections. Neither Sen. John Cornyn (R) nor Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) did so, so they will both be on the ballot when Texan Republicans (and Texans who have not voted yet) head back to the polls to pick the Republican nominee for this year's U.S. Senate race. That makes it considerably harder for anyone, even Donald Trump, to control the outcome. If Trump had just done the smart thing, endorsed Cornyn, and then offered Paxton a post as U.S. Ambassador to Sleazbalikstan, then Paxton might have been persuaded to drop out. Realistically though, the only job Paxton might have been willing to accept is AG, which would mean firing Pam Bondi, who almost certainly knows more about Epstein than she has let on so far. If Trump were to fire her, there is the real danger that she would go to the National Enquirer and say: "Make me an offer I can't refuse." (Z)