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Trump Is Losing the Narrative on Iran

We'll start this item with the big news from yesterday, at least as judged by how many big headlines it got. Trump ally and supporter, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent, resigned his job yesterday in protest of the Iran War, saying there is no justification for the conflict, as that nation posed no imminent threat to the U.S.

Kent's resignation letter, which you can read here, is pretty fiery. It is also pretty forgiving of Trump and at the same time veers in the general direction of antisemitism. Those two things are related; if Trump is not to be blamed for the invasion, then someone else has to be, and Kent thinks Israel is the villain. We recognize, of course, that "Jews" and "Israel" are not the same thing. However, his claims about Israel "manufacturing" the war and plotting and scheming to manipulate Trump do have shades of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Also, let's be very clear that Trump most certainly deserves the responsibility here, because the buck stops with him, and that even if he was being manipulated, it was not just by Israel but also by hawks within his own party. And don't forget, the U.A.E. bought $2 billion "worth" of worthless Trump crypto, Qatar gave Trump a $400 million gilded airplane, and Saudi Arabia gave Jared Kushner $2 billion to play with. All of them hate Iran and would love to see it sent back to the 7th century.

Kent's apostasy led to the latest round of finger-pointing, as Trump slammed Kent as a "loser" and a "crazed egomaniac," and said Kent is "weak." Which is a fair descriptor of a retired Green Beret who served 11 tours of duty in Iraq, we'd say. The President also blamed DNI Tulsi Gabbard for hiring Kent. Gabbard, for her part, insisted that wasn't her responsibility, but did say that Kent is wrong about the "imminent threat" part. Strange how nobody in the administration has been able to provide proof of that imminent threat, though.

Perhaps more important, once the Kent furor has died down, is this: Remember Trump v1.0, where the White House leaked like a sieve? Well, we seem to have returned to that era, and reporters these days are having no problem finding staffers willing to say critical things off the record, particularly as regards Iran. For example, Trump claimed Monday that nobody in the U.S. intelligence community expected Iran to react the way it has. This seems ridiculous on its face—nobody expected them to pick another Ayatollah from their seemingly endless supply of radical clerics, to dig their heels in, and to back their position with violence? Really? We are very far from experts on Iranian affairs, but c'mon—that prediction seems like shooting fish in a barrel. And, in any event, shortly after he said it, there were numerous folks in the executive branch willing to tell reporters that Trump was most certainly warned that this was one possible outcome.

To take another example, Politico put a piece together yesterday featuring numerous quotes from White House insiders, in which they say the U.S. once had the initiative, but that Iran now "hold[s] the cards." And to take a third example, folks in the Pentagon told NBC News that they have no idea what the plan is, and that the war could go on forever, or it could end tomorrow. Consequently, all planning has to have both "moving forward" scenarios and "exit ramp" scenarios. Again, we don't know Iran, but we do know something of military history and of tactics and strategy. And if you are simultaneously planning your attack, and also your retreat, you're not going to do your best work.

At the same time, Trump continues to rage about how foreign nations did not rush to help bail him out on the Strait of Hormuz mess. And yesterday, sounding kind of like a 6-year-old, he got on his social media platform for loners to declare that the U.S. is so awesome and so powerful that it does not need them, and never needed them anyhow. If the U.S. had a ball in Europe, Trump would surely be taking it and going home right now.

With Trump running his mouth about foreign nations on a daily basis, the people he's slamming—who, unlike Republicans, don't HAVE to take it—are increasingly deciding not to hold their tongues. For example, the U.K.'s National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell let it be known yesterday that a deal with Iran was in reach, and there was no reason to attack them (thus ending talks). And Powell should know, since he was at the negotiating table. To take another example, Lt. Gen. Michel Yakovleff (ret.), formerly of the French Foreign Legion, appeared on French news channel LCI, and let Trump have it with both barrels, referring to the President as "le capitaine du Titanic." We don't speak French, so we obviously have no idea what he could possibly be saying there, but maybe our French-speaking readers will find it enlightening.

And finally, on the subject of Iran having all the cards, the new leadership of that country has rejected all peace/de-escalation proposals put before them. Even Trump understands that if a leader is unpopular at home, a good way to rectify that is a popular war against an unpopular enemy. His problem is that he has no idea how to go about creating a popular war (a task, it should be noted, that put even the considerably greater skills of Franklin D. Roosevelt to the test).

Meanwhile, U.S. gas prices just keep climbing. Regular unleaded is up to $3.72/gallon, on average, which is an increase of about 80 cents over a month ago. And diesel is just shy of $5/gallon on average, an increase of $1.34 over a month ago. Most people do not drive diesel vehicles, but most truckers do, and so higher diesel prices tend to mean higher prices for things that are delivered by big-rig trucks, like food and manufactured goods.

And on it goes... (Z)



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