Mar.19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Can Trump Just Announce a Win and Leave Iran?

Donald Trump has already claimed that he won the war in Iran. So why doesn't he bring the troops home and organize a victory parade? The real reason is that he hasn't won. Yes, the U.S. military has flattened thousands of targets, but the Iranian regime is still intact and fighting back. As Yogi Berra put it: "It ain't over 'til it's over." Here are some of the reasons Trump can't take his marbles and go home quite yet:

• Hormuz: The Strait of Hormuz is closed and simply pulling all American troops out of the region won't open it. Iran has to decide to do that for its own reasons. Right now, the closure gives it a lot of leverage and it might not be willing to give that up, especially if it knows where all the mines are. In the worst case, Iranian oil tankers could transit the Strait safely but those of other nations could not. There is no way to keep the Strait open by military force since it is asymmetric warfare, with $50,000 drones against multimillion dollar ships—no oil company will risk it until there is peace.
  
  
• The Supreme Leader: The Iranian government was decapitated by the killing of ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but he was old and sick. He has been replaced by his son, who is much younger, more vigorous, and said to be even more of a hardliner than dad. He is not likely to give Trump the unconditional surrender he wants. Also, the regime is not popular with the people of Iran, but an ongoing war will produce a rally-round-the-flag effect in Iran so junior probably wants to keep the war going, despite the destruction.
  
  
• Israel: Even if Trump calls it quits, what about Israel, whose goals aren't entirely parallel to those of the U.S.? The U.S. doesn't want an ungovernable failed state in Iran. Israel could live with that since failed states are not good at the difficult work of building nuclear weapons. But to end the war, Trump would not only have to tell U.S. troops to stop bombing, but would have to get Israel to do so as well.
  
  
• No Narrative: The war has cost the lives of over a dozen U.S. soldiers and tens of billions of dollars in taxpayer money. If Trump declares victory and orders the troops home, many people are going to ask: "How are we better off now than in January, given that intelligence reports said that Iran was not threatening us?" He'd better have a good answer.
  
  
• The Nuclear Question: One answer Trump could give is: "We did it to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons." This answer runs into two problems. First, Trump claimed the strikes last year destroyed all the weapons and uranium, so how come we had to do it again? Second, assuming Iran still has enriched uranium, how can anyone stop it from building a bomb? If the goal was to prevent a bomb and they could still build one, how is that a victory?
  
  
• No Regime Change: One of the many reasons Trump has given for attacking Iran is to effectuate regime change. So far, all that has happened is that one ayatollah has been replaced by a younger, stronger, and nastier one. Trump expected the people to rise up against the regime. It didn't happen and there is no reason to think it will anytime soon. How is that a victory?
  
  
• Domestic Politics: The war is not popular at home and the more soldiers killed and the longer it goes on, the less popular it will be. The war is driving up gas prices and will stoke inflation. Trump could argue that the short-term pain is worth the long-term gain, but he is going to have to convince people that there is a long-term gain. He can't withdraw until he has made that case, lest the war be for naught, which is a tough sell to the voters.

For these reasons and others, it will be difficult for Trump to just pack up and go home. That will not solve his (political) problem. Oh, and it might bring the Epstein files back to the front pages. Of course, he could call up his buddy, Vladimir Putin, and say: "Vladimir, old friend. I invaded a country that I thought would crumple in a few days and it has not crumpled and keeps fighting back. You know how to handle this stuff. What should I do?" (V)