Dem
47
GOP
53
While it may seem odd for us to be writing about diesel and gas prices in the middle of a war, the political impact of the war most definitely runs though fuel prices. The higher they go, the more inflation there is, and most people know how inflation affected public opinion during the Biden administration and resulted in Donald Trump's second term.
While gas prices haven't hit $5/gal. (yet), diesel prices have, as of yesterday. However, the average gas price nationally is now at $3.89/gal. and rising by about 25¢/week. Gas prices hit consumers directly, but ultimately diesel prices are more important because most big trucks use diesel and if hauling stuff around the country and to stores gets more expensive, prices for almost everything will have to rise. It is just economics.
Nevertheless, people tend to notice gas prices first because they are so specific and confront them so regularly. Gas prices also hit Trump's base harder than they hit Democrats. People who live in Idaho or Wyoming are mostly Republicans and drive a lot—and long distances, at that. People who live in New York City or San Francisco are mostly Democrats and many of them don't even own a car. Instead they use public transit a lot. Fuel for buses is also going up, but due to regulation, bus companies can't raise their fares every week so the effect is hidden for the time being.
Gas prices vary around the country quite a bit simply due to the economics of the energy business. The cost of transporting the gas there, competition, the size of the market, and other factors play a role. Here is a map showing the average gas price (in $/gal.) for the states with key Senate elections this year. The higher the price, the more it will hurt the Republicans. However, we don't think the effect will necessarily be large until prices pass $4/gal.
As you can see, in none of the states with an important Senate race has the average price hit $4/gal. yet. However, with prices currently rising 25¢/week, in another week or so, we could get there. Since only two of the states with a potentially competitive Senate race are above the national average of $3.89, you might be wondering how the math works. The answer is that gas in the far West is very expensive, so we included the average prices for five states in the West.
If comparative gas prices are your thing, if you go back as far as 2008, the lowest daily average since then was on Dec. 29, 2008 at $1.59/gal. and the highest was June 16, 2022 at $5.03/gal.
Despite current gas prices being nowhere near record levels, people are starting to notice. A new Yahoo/YouGov poll found that 66% of American adults disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling gas prices vs. 27% who approve. Overall on the cost of living, Trump is way down, with only 26% approving and 67% disapproving, a net 41 points under water. Also, 61% say inflation is getting worse and only 16% say it is getting better. That doesn't bode well for the Republicans in November. Still, Trump's overall approval is 38% (vs. 59% disapprove), a mere 21 points underwater. Why the big difference? Presumably due to much better approval in other areas, like immigration. (V)