Dem
47
GOP
53
There have been several stories about the split in MAGA, but that may be overstated. A few high-profile MAGA stars, like Tucker Carlson, are upset about another forever war, but polls show that most Republican voters are still on board the S.S. Trump. The war in Iran is unpopular because Democrats and independents don't like it. However, for many Republicans, Donald John Trump is a God-King and they believe everything he says and support everything he does.
This is more of a description of a cult than a political party that has consistent principles that all leaders follow and most supporters want. Back in the days of St. Ronald of Reagan, the Republican party stood for individual liberty, free markets, free trade, and small government. Reagan acted in accordance with these principles. The Party was not a cult worshipping Reagan. This is why George H.W. Bush was able to win in 1988: He offered more of the same and that is what the voters wanted.
Now, MAGA is simply Trump. Whatever he wants is what they want. When he wanted no more wars, they wanted no more wars. When he wanted a new war or two, they wanted a new war or two. A lot of media coverage about MAGA is way off base because it assumes MAGA has some underlying ideology. It doesn't. It is just hero worship of Trump, no more, no less.
Here is a chart showing how MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA Republicans (what we sometimes call "normie Republicans") view Trump on various issues:
As you can see, except for immigration and crime, the non-MAGA Republicans are quite far from the MAGA Republicans on many issues. In effect, the MAGA Republicans are just saying: "We love Trump." The issues don't actually matter at all to them.
Now what about all the stories about the split in MAGA over Iran? A YouGov poll cited in the piece linked to above broke down support along two axes: MAGA and support for the war. Here is a graphic that reflects that breakdown.
The media often get snookered by small but noisy groups. The anti-Iran group, led by Carlson, Steve Bannon, Joe Rogan and David French, are only around 7% of people calling themselves Republicans. But MAGA vs. non-MAGA makes a good story. Another example of the same misreading of a small but noisy group is young voters. To read the news, one gets the impression that the big issues for young Democrats are climate change, Palestine, and student loans. In actual polling, these rank 11, 14 and 15, respectively. But the groups that care about those issues are very good at getting attention and the media like a good show.
This MAGA = Trump view brings up an important issue: What happens when Trump is no longer on the ballot? He can't run for president again, although he could run for governor, the House, the Senate or sheriff of Palm Beach County (although the latter would be a bit of a letdown). This craziness also extends to people's personal finances, with 73% of MAGAs expecting their personal finances to improve in the next 5 years vs. 57% of non-MAGA Republicans. It is doubtful that there is any true economic basis for this discrepancy.
If MAGA = Trump, will anyone be able to hold MAGA together after Trump is gone? None of the other contenders seem like cult leaders. J.D. Vance wants to be a cult leader, but merely adopting the most recent of Trump's positions doesn't make it so, because MAGA is not about positions. It is about Trump, and Vance is not Trump. What Vance (and Marco Rubio) have going for them is that many Trump voters have been trained to hate the Democrats, so de facto their choices are the Republican nominee or not voting at all. Some may choose the latter, but there probably isn't much any Republican 2028 nominee can do about that since the Republican Party really isn't a party anymore. (V)