Mar.23

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Dem 47

   

GOP 53

What's Next in Iran?

The correct answer: "Nobody knows." That specifically includes Donald Trump, who is just winging it. He thought Iran would offer an unconditional surrender within a few days to avoid being bombed back to the 7th century. Turns out they like the 7th century. It's their favorite century. Who knew that bombing wouldn't bring them to their knees? Probably only historians who have studied the war in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq, the war in Vietnam and the war in Korea. Bombing rarely results in regime change. Only boots on the ground have a real chance to do that, and even then often not.

Political analysts don't have a clue either. Consider these headlines:

• Trump Is Finally Eyeing an Exit From Iran. But Will He Take It? (NYT)
  
• US pauses sanctions on some of Iran's oil as gas prices surge (Politico)
  
• US speeds up deployment of thousands more Marines, sailors to Middle East (The Hill)
  
• Trump weighing several options for U.S. troops inside Iran (NBC)
  
• Trump is strategizing means to seize Iran's nuclear stockpiles, sources say (CBS)
  
• Trump mulls risky Kharg Island takeover to force Iran to open strait (Axios)
  

In other words, it is beginning to dawn on Trump that this is not Venezuela, Part II. It won't be over in 1 day. It is not going well and he needs to do something. But what? Maybe allow Iran and Russia to sell their oil so Iran has more money to kill American soldiers? Interesting concept. Maybe run a couple of focus groups to see how the voters go for it. What about sending in the Marines? Sure. But what would they do there? Take Iran's enriched uranium? Occupy Kharg Island and seize the oil? He doesn't have a clue.

Maybe ask that long-time military strategist, war hero and former third-tier Fox host Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth? Nah, Hegseth is too busy trying to root out transgender soldiers to have time to do things like fight actual wars... er, "excursions." Of course, Trump could jump the chain of command and ask Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan "Raizin" Caine. But Caine already told him this would not be easy and Trump ignored the advice, preferring to listen to his gut rather than listen to a 4-star general who has extensive experience fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. So now what and what happens next?

Axios doesn't know either, but does have a list of topics that need to be addressed before the excursion in Iran can end.

• The Strait of Hormuz: The price of gas and diesel fuel is becoming a big problem for Donald Trump. There is an even bigger problem coming down the road for Trump in about 6 months, just before the midterms, but he is probably not aware of it now: fertilizer. It takes a Nobel Memorial Prize winner in economics to keep track of this stuff, and Trump is working on the Peace Prize, not the Economics Prize. It turns out that farmers are starting to plant this year's food crop now and they need fertilizer now, and a lot of it is bottled up on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz. Farmers can't wait because they need to plant now so their crops will be ready to be harvested before frost sets in. If there is a shortage of fertilizer in April, food prices will go up in October.
  
  Trump has toyed with the idea of just leaving Iran because the U.S. doesn't import any oil from the region, but probably unbeknownst to him, it does import a lot of fertilizer from the region. Also, if world oil prices remain sky high, U.S. producers are going to charge the world price, even if they don't have to. Making extra profit with no extra work is a no-brainer for the oil companies. Of course, Trump is a communist at heart, so he might try to use the Defense Production Act of 1950 to nationalize oil production for some amount of time. If so, Big Oil would be thrilled about what they got in exchange for their millions in "donations" to his inaugural committee.
  
  
• Boots on the Ground: This is obviously a major, major decision. Bringing troops to the region is easy (but expensive). Ordering troops into an active war zone is probably the most consequential decision any president can make. It could range from a small number of secret special forces with a limited mission to a full-bore invasion. The former decision could result in hostages. The latter decision could result in many deaths and injuries to the soldiers, which tends to turn public opinion against the invasion and against the president who made the decision. Trump would be betting the farm if he does this. Getting it right could save the House. Getting it wrong could give the Democrats 40-50 extra seats in the House and 5-10 in the Senate.
  
  
• Iran's Uranium: One of Trump's many stated goals for bombing Iran is to prevent it from building a nuclear weapon. Iran is believed to have produced hundreds of kilograms of bomb-grade uranium. Will Trump end the war and leave Iran with all of that uranium, hoping that the resulting bomb is tested on the next president's watch?
  
  
• Who will lead Iran?: After the old and sick Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, he was replaced by his son, the young and not-sick Mojtaba Khamenei. Reports say that junior is even more of a hard liner than dad. There are also rumors that junior was injured in one of the attacks. A young, vigorous, and very angry hardliner is just what Trump needs as a negotiating partner. It will test his deal-making skills.

Trump has had a number of surprises so far in the war. First, He expected Iran, a proud country previously called Persia, and going back about 2600 years to Cyrus the Great, to give in when first attacked. Turns out it has been attacked and beaten a couple of times before, but that has required the military genius and large army of someone like Alexander the Great or Genghis Khan. Donald may think he is Great but Genghis Khan he is not.

Second, he didn't expect Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz and cause energy prices to skyrocket. The U.S. military certainly did and no doubt told him, but he probably didn't believe them. The oil companies certainly knew, but maybe he didn't bother to ask them. Maybe someone could give him a world map for his 80th birthday in June. It could come in handy some day. But no Sharpies!

Third, in a war like this one, it is good to have allies. Trump was surprised that after a year of his telling America's allies that they were useless parasites and of no use to him, they did not immediately spring to attention when he ordered them to send ships to the Strait. Ingrates.

Fourth, he was expecting the Revolutionary Guard to take over and they didn't. They have a good deal going as it is and have no need to pick a fight with the clergy.

Fifth, he was also expecting the people of Iran to rise up. They did a few weeks ago and he promised to help. But he didn't. Maybe it was a tad naive to expect they would rise up again after something like 30,000 people were murdered by the regime in Round 1 and America wasn't there for them that time.

Sixth, he didn't really consider the likely political effects and is only starting to see them. Maybe he was so expecting a short, easy war (despite what the generals told him) that it never occurred to him that wars have rarely been popular in U.S. history unless the country has been attacked, as it was at Pearl Harbor. If the war continues for a few more months, more soldiers are killed, or inflation comes roaring back, the nastiest surprise of all may come on Nov. 3.

In short, lots of things have happened differently than in his dreams. And it is not over until the fat lady sings. There could be a recession, a wider war, and other unexpected events. Or when all is said and done, we could return to the status quo ante after using up most of America's stockpile of munitions and not being in a position to help Taiwan if China decides this is the time for "reunification." The reality is that Trump has no good options now, only bad, worse, and worst. (V)