Dem
47
GOP
53
Both Democrats and Republicans are fretting about the Texas Senate runoff between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Texas AG Ken Paxton. Democrats are hoping, even praying—or on account of Democrat James Talarico's status as a Presbyterian seminarian—that the totally corrupt Paxton will be the nominee. Republicans are scared witless that that could indeed happen. Donald Trump promised to make an endorsement to drive one of the candidates out of the race. Well, TACO, and the filing deadline has now passed, so both names will be on the primary ballot. Trump probably skipped making the endorsement for two reasons. First, he hates to back a loser and it is not clear who will win the primary. Second, he is caught between the Senate leadership, which supports Cornyn, and his own base, which supports Paxton.
Now a new Impact Research poll of likely general-election voters released by Talarico's campaign shows that it may not matter, as both Cornyn and Paxton are deeply unpopular. Cornyn's approval is 33 points under water, at 27% favorable and 60% unfavorable. Paxton is a mere 18 points under water at 27%/55%. Both men are deeply unpopular with independents. Cornyn is -42 points with them and Paxton is at -32. Both men are less popular than even Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Being less popular in Texas than Ted Cruz is something of an achievement. Normal, garden-variety politicians can't do that.
In general-election matchups, Talarico beats Cornyn 43% to 41% and beats Paxton 44% to 43%. This suggests that it doesn't really matter who wins the runoff. The runoff is May 26, which means there will be 2 months of nasty mudslinging between the two Republicans, with Paxton calling Cornyn a RINO and Cornyn calling Paxton a crook. Months of negative ads could cause some Republicans to just skip voting in November since Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is a shoo-in for another term and doesn't need the votes.
While Cornyn and Paxton are shooting at each other until the end of May, the Bible-quoting Talarico is free to raise money for the general election and run a positive campaign. He isn't talking about left vs. right, but about top vs. bottom. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas for decades, but the combination of a mild-mannered, openly religious Democrat, a deeply unpopular Republican, a bad economy, and an unpopular war might just be the ticket for the Democrats. (V)