Mar.24

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, Who's the Fairest of Them All?

Race to the White House, in addition to collecting other polling information, also takes note when the approval ratings of key political figures are measured. And yesterday, blogger Pablo Manríquez decided to collect all those numbers in one place, to produce a ranking of how some pretty high-profile people rate, relative to other high-profile people.

We are not exactly enamored of Manríquez' approach, however. He ranked politicos solely by their approval rating, which results in someone like Donald Trump being ranked equal to Kamala Harris, since they both have the backing of 40% of respondents. The problem is that Trump is actually a fair bit less popular, since his net is -16 (40% vs. 56%), while hers is -8 (40% vs 48%). On top of that, Manríquez' rankings make someone like Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) look downright unpopular, primarily because there are so many people with no opinion (48%) that the percentage who approve of him is only 30%. His negatives are only 22%, which means he actually nets +8, and yet according to Manríquez' ranking, Beshear is far less popular than the -16 Trump.

Anyhow, to try to get meaning out of the data that's a little more useful, we've calculated the Q Score for each of the folks on the list. Q Score, for those who are unfamiliar, was developed in 1963, and it ignores any respondent who does not have an opinion. So, if someone has a Q Score of, say, 40%, it means that of the respondents who expressed an opinion on the person, 40% approved. Here's the data, ordered by Q Score:

And now, taking a look at the data, here are ten thoughts that occur to us:

1. Whether using the original method or our method, Barack Obama remains the most popular political figure in the land. Similarly, whether using the original method or our method, Stephen Miller is the most hated political figure in the land.
   
   
2. It would seem that the Democrats already have a couple of dynamite presidential candidates on their bench. And since more than a third of the voting public has yet to form an opinion on the two moderate governors, there is at least some chance for their Q Score to improve.
   
   
3. On the other hand, the would-be Democratic presidential nominees from California would seem to have some work to do.
   
   
4. Although moderate Democrats dominate the top of the list, progressivism also seems to be playing fairly well with the voting public.
   
   
5. While we see many stories about how the "Democratic brand" is badly damaged, it looks to be the MAGA brand that is actually flailing. Of the bottom 13 here, 12 are MAGA, or are pretending to be MAGA (with Sen. Rand Paul, R-KY, the exception).
   
   
6. Why on Earth is anyone tracking Tucker Carlson? Does anyone believe he'll ever be a viable candidate for president or any other elective office? Democrats loathe him with the white-hot heat of a thousand suns, while many Republicans loathe him with the white-hot heat of 500 suns.
   
   
7. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) would seem to be your GOP presidential frontrunner right now. That is, unless you believe Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is a dark horse, just biding his time until he throws his hat into the ring.
   
   
8. VP J.D. Vance, by contrast, is exactly as popular as Ted Cruz. This is not a good place to be.
   
   
9. Robert Kennedy Jr., as one of the most popular Trumpers on the list, would seem to have some version of a MAGA + MAHA coalition, one that affords him slightly more support than the Trumpers who are just MAGA. We doubt this presages some sort of political future for him, though, because he's still doing pretty poorly, and because he is likely to alienate MAGA, MAHA, or both by the time this is all said and done. Oh, and there's also the fact that he's still bat**it crazy.
   
   
10. We are always mystified: Who are these people who have yet to form an opinion on Barack Obama, or Donald Trump, or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)? These three men have all been major political figures for at least a decade. Exactly what information is needed for the "No Opinion" folks to make up their minds?

Also noteworthy is that one serious contender, Ruben Gallego, isn't even on the list. There you have it—one quick and dirty taking of the current political temperature. (Z)