Dem
47
GOP
53
On Tuesday, Republicans offered a plan to fund DHS and end the partial government shutdown. It would fund all of DHS except ICE. Once the bill passes and is signed into law, Republicans would then fund ICE using the budget reconciliation procedure. That bill would also include the SAVE America Act, which would disenfranchise 21 million Americans who don't have proof of citizenship and also ban trans girls from girls sports. In this way they could theoretically get full funding for the Department without making any concessions about reining in ICE. Not entirely surprisingly, Democrats have rejected the Republicans' kind offer. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said: "You know what we've called for all along. I'm not going to get into specifics but we need strong, strong reforms and we need to rein in ICE. We've been consistent in what we've been asking for from the get-go."
Schumer said the Democrats would come with a counteroffer. He promised that it would contain significant reform elements. However, the Democratic counteroffer is sure to run into trouble. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said that the negotiations have been made difficult by Donald Trump "making new and unreasonable demands over social media." By this she meant Trump's insistence that he would not sign any funding bill until the House and Senate had approved the SAVE America Act, one way or another.
While it seems unlikely the SAVE America Act will pass Congress, red states are busy implementing state versions of it, in some cases using ballot measures. Six states are likely to vote on it this year. In West Virginia, for example, the ballot measure would change the state's Constitution from "citizens of the state shall be entitled to vote" to "only citizens of the state who are citizens of the United States are entitled to vote." Of course, this is completely unnecessary since non-citizens are already forbidden from voting in federal or state elections. Other states definitely holding a vote this year are Arkansas, Kansas and South Dakota. Initiatives may also make it in Alaska, Arizona and Michigan.
Why is this even an issue? It could be that Republicans are planning to try to increase turnout by making the midterms about undocumented immigrants voting rather than about affordability. Distracting the voters with some shiny object like this is a long-standing Republican ploy. During the presidency of George W. Bush, Karl Rove used ballot initiatives banning same-sex marriage very effectively to increase Republican turnout. It has worked well in the past, so why not try again?
When the Democrats offer their proposal, which will contain provisions to rein in ICE, Republicans will reject it. When will this finally end? Our guess is that as the situation at airports gets worse and worse, with more TSA agents calling in "sick" (actually working part-time jobs to put food on the table and pay the rent), eventually constituent pressure will grow so great that some kind of bill will pass, possibly reining in ICE to some extent, but not everything Democrats want. But it could be a while. (V)