Dem
47
GOP
53
Not all Republicans are on board with their own plan for funding the easy stuff via the regular order and the stuff the Democrats hate via a reconciliation bill. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has said that the Senate parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, would never approve stuffing the SAVE America Act in a reconciliation bill because it is not primarily about the budget. This is a requirement (called the Byrd bath) for reconciliation bills. In the past, MacDonough has rejected attempts by both parties to pass reconciliation bills containing nonbudget provisions. For example, in 2021, Democrats attempted to give Dreamers permanent status in a pandemic-related reconciliation bill and MacDonough said: "Nope!"
Scott also noted that getting the BBB through was a huge struggle because each senator wanted to throw in his or her pet projects and the only reason it passed was the uniform support within the caucus for tax cuts for millionaires (which includes nearly all the Republican senators).
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) said a reconciliation bill might be possible, but the key would be to keep it as narrow as possible. He is against what he calls "scope creep." By this he meant if the only thing in the bill is funding ICE, it might pass, but if it includes changing election laws and throwing in girls sports for good measure, it wouldn't have the votes, even in the unlikely event the Parliamentarian approved.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), who is facing a tough reelection bid, said that reconciliation is not a "good approach." Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) was asked what she thought about another reconciliation bill and she said: "You know me. I'm not a big fan of reconciliation."
Although it takes only a majority to pass a reconciliation bill, the Senate currently has 53 Republicans, so a bill could tolerate only three defections, in which case President of the Senate J.D. Vance would break the tie. But with Scott, Tillis, Collins, and Murkowski skeptical of a reconciliation bill, that sounds a lot like four votes against it.
In addition, Republicans currently have an ultra-thin 218-214 House majority, so getting anything through the House will also be tricky. This is especially problematic as conservatives have promised/threatened to cut billions of dollars from the social safety net, a change moderates don't want to have to defend in the fall.
The bottom line here is that another reconciliation bill is very unlikely and the only way to fund all of DHS is for the parties to come to some agreement both of them can live with, however grudgingly. (V)