Dem
47
GOP
53
There are several techniques political analysts use to try to predict the results of upcoming congressional elections. One is to look at special elections held in the year(s) before the election. Another is to use the generic House poll (Which party will you vote for in November?) There are data available on this, and the Cook Political Report has examined them. Here they are:
| Method | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 |
| Generic ballot | D+8.0 | D+7.0 | R+0.6 | D+0.3 |
| Special elections | D+10.6 | D+4.8 | R+3.7 | D+3.5 |
| House popular vote | D+8.6 | D+3.1 | R+2.8 | R+2.7 |
| Senate popular vote | D+20.0 | R+2.3 | D+0.5 | D+1.4 |
For the House, in 2018 the generic ballot was best, but in 2020 and 2022 the special elections were better. In 2024, both were too rosy for the Democrats.
So far this year, the generic poll is D+6 and the special elections are D+13. This could presage a big Democratic victory. However, Republicans have a cash advantage. On the other hand, enthusiasm seems to be with the Democrats this time. Except for 2024, when both indicators pointed in what was ultimately the wrong direction, the direction was right. And it could be that in 2024, Donald Trump attracted many marginal voters who won't vote without him on the ballot. More likely than not, 2024 was an outlier and if both indicators are blue, the Democrats will win the popular vote. Of course, the total popular vote doesn't actually mean that much. Running up the score in California doesn't say that much about swing districts in New York or the Senate race in Maine. Still, these metrics are probably worth keeping an eye on. (V)