Dem
47
GOP
53
Both parties are focused mostly on 2026 now, with a few people thinking about what candidate might be the strongest for president in 2028. But Democrats need to think long term, and start that right now. The problem is the map and it is not going away.
To win the presidency in 2028, Democrats need to win all the blue states plus Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It can be done. Joe Biden did it and a decent Democrat could do it in 2028. But 2032 is a whole different kettle of fish. In the 2030 census, something in the range of 8-12 House seats (and thus electoral votes) will move from states Democrats can win to red states, mostly Florida and Texas. Based on current population trends if Democrats win all the usual blue states and also Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2032, they will have about 260 electoral votes and lose. Think about that. The usual blue states and the three blue wall states plus Nevada will get them to about 266—four EVs too few. This is a five-alarm fire and dealing with it has to start now.
Bad as the presidential map is, it is not hopeless. The blue states plus the three blue wall states and one of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina would be just enough. These are purple, so there is hope there, especially Arizona, where the governor, both senators, the lieutenant governor, the AG, and the SoS are all Democrats.
But the House is even worse. Florida and Texas are expected to gain a total of eight seats in 2032. Other states likely to gain seats are Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Utah. Republicans control all 12 legislative chambers. Which party do you expect to get the new districts? Fortunately, Arizona has an independent commission. The governor of North Carolina is currently a Democrat, but the legislature stripped the governor of veto power over district maps. So unless something changes fast, the Democrats will get a fair shot at one seat in Arizona and the Republicans will take all the others and control the House for a decade.
It should be clear now that Democrats need to get going on this. One thing they could do if they get the federal trifecta in 2028 is pass a law requiring all states to have an independent commission to draw the maps. They will also have to pass a law stripping the Supreme Court of appellate jurisdiction on cases involving election maps. It won't be easy, but is technically doable, for example, by making Republicans actually filibuster and letting them talk until they physically drop on the floor of the Senate. The sergeant-at-arms can haul the bodies away if need be. If it takes a month, it takes a month.
A different approach, which would be longer lasting, is to start competing for House seats in all of the above states and a few others, where they have a chance. Maybe not Howard Dean's 50-state strategy, but how about a 30-state strategy? This would require dropping all litmus tests and running candidates who were good fits for their districts. On many issues, things Democrats want, like universal health care, higher taxes on the rich, a $15/hr minimum wage, helping small businesses, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and caring for veterans, are quite popular even in red states. But this would mean accepting divergent views on some topics. Running on banning guns is not a winner in Montana, but universal health care might well be. Some Democrats will freak out at having some Democratic candidates who deviate from the party line on key issues, but they have to ask themselves are they better off with Texas Democrats who support guns and Alaska Democrats who support oil or Republicans who oppose them on everything in those House seats.
Another thing Democrats can try to do is win more state legislative chambers, something certainly possible if gerrymandering can be abolished in 2028. But even in 2026, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are real possibilities. Republicans have understood the importance of state legislatures for decades. Democrats need to catch up there.
Why now? Donald Trump and the Republicans are very unpopular now. This is the moment to take advantage of that. That chance may not come again. It will take many election cycles to make real changes, but this is about as favorable a time to start as any. (V)