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GOP
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After a multiweek drought in April, primary season is back with a vengeance in May. Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, West Virginia, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania will hold primaries this month. Some of them are bitterly contested.
If there is a theme here, it is "May is retribution month." Unlike many politiicians, Donald Trump is carrying out some of his campaign promises. In particular, he promised retribution against everyone who has opposed him and sure enough, he is doing it. He has two tactics. For some opponents, he is using the so-called Department of Justice to indict and harass them. James Comey, Letitia James, John Bolton and others come to mind here. For politicians currently in office, his go-to mechanism is to endorse (or threaten to endorse) a primary opponent. In some cases, the threat alone was enough to get his target to give up and retire. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is a prominent example, although that may not work so well for the Republican Party if Democrat Roy Cooper wins the open seat.
May is the time that the rubber is going to hit the road on the endorsements and retribution. Four primaries to watch are Indiana (May 5), Louisiana (May 16), Georgia and Kentucky (both May 19). Tomorrow, Indiana holds its primary, so let's start there. Trump is furious with the Hoosier State because Republicans there refused to redistrict the congressional map to make sure that the two Democratic Congressman, Frank Mrvan and Andrew Carson, were sent home. Mrvan's district is D+1, so he could be possibly be defeated by just spending a lot of money in Gary, IN, and environs. Carson's district is in Indianapolis and is D+21, so that would require major surgery to the map.
Trump and his allies are going to the mat to defeat half a dozen Indiana state senators who voted against drawing a new map. State Senate races are pretty usually low profile and few people even know who their state senator is. The Club for Growth is spending $2 million to defeat them, nonetheless. One of the senators, Travis Holdman, said: "Retribution is not a Christian value." David McIntosh, head of the Club, replied: "Jesus was a wuss." OK, he didn't actually say that, although he was probably thinking that turning the other cheek is a pretty stupid defense strategy. McIntosh actually said: "If that senator had helped us pass redistricting we wouldn't need to." Depending on how many of the senators win, we will get a good idea of how powerful Trump's endorsement is. Of course, this cuts both ways. If most of them are renominated, that sends a message to other Republican politicians.
The other primaries tomorrow are in Ohio. The Senate race is pretty much set, with Sherrod Brown (D) against Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH). This will be a very competitive race in November. In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Amy Acton is the only candidate. In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Vivek Ramaswamy is the heavy favorite. For attorney general, there are two Democrats running, former state Rep. Elliott Forhan and veteran lawyer John Kulewicz. There are contested races for some of the House seats, but the state is so gerrymandered that the only general election race that might be competitive is OH-09, where Marcy Kaptur is the only Democrat on the primary ballot. If you are interested in the other downballot primary races in Ohio, here is a list of the candidates.
Let's take a quick look for now at the other "retribution" races and ones where Trump has endorsed. In Louisiana, the senatorial primary will go forward on May 16, despite the House primaries being postponed, probably until July. The biggie here is the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, in which Trump is backing Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) against Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Cassidy's offenses were voting for Trump's conviction after he was impeached and asking Robert Kennedy Jr. actual questions during his Senate confirmation hearing. A third candidate, John Fleming, is also in the mix so there could be a runoff.
In Georgia, Trump is trying very hard to defeat SoS Brad Raffensperger (R), who is running for governor. Raffensperger's offense was failing to find 11,780 more votes for Trump in 2020. Trump is supporting Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R-GA).
In Kentucky, the only race Trump really cares about is defeating Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY). Massie has been a real pain for Trump and Trump is pulling out all stops to defeat him. If Massie wins, he will be unstoppable in his criticism of Trump going forward. Trump has also endorsed fire-breathing right-winger Andy Barr for the seat of retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), but that is less important to the President. (V)