Dem
47
GOP
53
The Supreme Court's decision last week to gut the last bit of the Voting Rights Act is already having the exact effect that everyone expected: Southern states are redrawing the maps to create more Republican seats. Louisiana has to do it by order of the Court and is going first.
It is a giant mess. Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) postponed the House primaries but let the other primaries go forward on May 16 as scheduled, with early voting already underway. Landry's goal is a House delegation with six white Republicans, instead of the current four white Republicans and two Black Democrats. Rep. Cleo Fields (D-LA), who represents LA-06 (including Baton Rouge) said: "If you tell me that I got to jump a certain height, I could probably do that. Tell me [if] I got to run a certain distance, I could probably do that too. But if you tell me I have to be white to serve in Congress from Louisiana, I can't do nothing about that."
Landry was immediately challenged in court since primary dates are set by state law and cannot be changed unilaterally by the governor. Also, voters are going to be very confused by a combination of two primaries and new districts, possibly with new candidates unknown in the district. Oh, and this is the first year partisan primaries are being used instead of the old jungle primaries
Louisiana may be first, but Alabama and Tennessee are not far behind. Both Gov. Kay Ivey (R-AL) and Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN) have called special sessions of their respective state legislatures for the purpose of drawing new maps that will eliminate the seats of the Black Democrats. Alabama has two, occupied by Reps. Shomari Figures (Montgomery) and Terri Sewell (Birmingham and Selma). The other five districts are R+27, R+23, R+33, R+15 and R+20, respectively, so there are plenty of Republicans available to dump into the two blue teamers' D+5 and D+13 districts.
There is a problem, however. Alabama is under court order to keep its current map until 2030, so state AG Steve Marshall (R) has asked the court for permission to change the map in light of the Supreme Court decision. Until that happens, the legislature can draw a new map once it is in session, but it can't pass it. The primary is scheduled for May 19 and the filing deadline is long past.
Tennessee has only one Democrat, Rep. Steve Cohen, who is white, so that gerrymander will be strictly political. His Memphis-based district is D+23, so a fairly radical change to the map will be needed to make it R+x. It is certainly doable, but the current representatives are not going to like being dumped in brand new districts, even if they are deep red, because that could make them vulnerable to primary challenges from other Republicans—say, state senators or mayors who know the district better than they do.
These three states alone could yield five new Republican seats. In all three states, potential problems include: (1) getting the new map out before the primaries so candidates know where to file, (2) expected court challenges, which could slow the process down and (3) basing the new maps on the 2024 election results, which may be an anomaly. For other Southern states, it may be too difficult to change the maps right now, so they may wait until 2027 to change them for the 2028 elections.
And just like the 2026 round of gerrymandering, which may yield only a handful of seats for the Republicans, the 2028 round may also end up being less valuable than they are hoping. Remember, the Supreme Court has made it clear that while racial gerrymandering is not allowed, political gerrymandering is fine and dandy. California currently has 9 Republican representatives. That is likely to be 4-6 after the election. But if Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) wants to impress primary voters in 2028 with how aggressive he is, he could ask the legislature for a political gerrymander eliminating most or all of the remaining Republican seats. Republicans would howl to the moon, but it wouldn't help. New York has seven Republican seats. It could try to eliminate most of them for 2028. Illinois has three Republican representatives. It could try to send one or two of them to the unemployment office. Colorado could provide up to four more, Maryland one more. Republicans could try to respond in Texas and maybe in a few other red states with a big blue city.
Voters absolutely hate this stuff. In 2028, Democrats could make getting rid of gerrymandering a campaign plank. It could be part of a section called "Preserving Democracy." There are various ways to get rid of gerrymandering. One way is to mandate independent commission in every state, but care needs to be taken that they are really independent. The California system has carefully vetted ordinary citizens in the commissions.
A completely different way is for Congress to repeal the law requiring single-member districts. Instead, House elections could be statewide, with proportional representation. For example, if Democrats got 45% of the House vote in Texas, they would get 45% of the 38 seats = 17 seats. Most European countries use this system with minor variants, so there are plenty of examples out there to choose from. All of these schemes make the parties more central, which has both good points and bad points. It also means that smaller parties, like the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, would have a good chance of winning some House seats, for better or worse. (V)