May05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Xavier Becerra, the Latino Joe Biden

Politico had a piece yesterday headlined "How Xavier Becerra became the Joe Biden of California's governor race." The basic idea is that Becerra, like Biden, is a moderate establishment politician who was left for dead, but who nonetheless remained in the race, until surging at just the right time.

As we read the piece, we alternated between thinking "yeah, the two campaigns kinda do have the same beats" and "eh, maybe this author is working a bit too hard to fit the Becerra peg into the Biden hole." In any event, it gives us a quick excuse to do a rundown of the current state of the race, according to the pollsters. There have been five polls since Betty Yee dropped out (not that the dispersal of her 1% support should have had much impact). Here they are, from newest to oldest, including the six candidates who have polled above 5% in at least one poll:

A few observations:

• Republican Steve Hilton is the likeliest candidate to advance to the general election. He's in first or second place in every poll, and in only one of the five (EMC) is third place even so much as visible in his rear-view mirror.
  
  
• By contrast, Republican Chad Bianco is sinking. He was once in the 20s, and remained in the high teens in some polls as late as mid-April. However, he's down in the lower teens now, and could soon be in single digits. Further, he is in fourth place in three of these polls and third place in two others, and in none of them is he within shouting distance of the second-place finish he'd need to advance to the general. This is happy news for the Democrats, since as long as SOME Democrat makes it to the final round, that person will crush Hilton.
  
  
• Speaking of the Democrats, it's hard to know whether Becerra or Tom Steyer is their frontrunner. Two of the polls that give the nod to the former are from Democratic houses (Evitarus and EMC). On the other hand, Becerra's very best poll is from a non-partisan house (Gudelunas). Really, the wild gaps in the results (particularly the 14 points between Becerra's best result and his worst) make clear that this year's electorate is very hard to model. It probably won't be clear which Democrat is going to make it through until the votes are counted on Election Day.
  
  
• What is Katie Porter doing? Like Bianco, she's headed in the wrong direction. She was regularly polling in the double digits, at least, but now she's down to the single digits more often than not. With the Steyer-Becerra race so close, her endorsement could matter. Is there not something she could wangle in exchange for that? A promise to be appointed to the gubernatorial cabinet, or the state Supreme Court, or something like that? Because she's not going to be governor.
  
  
• Ditto Matt Mahan, except his endorsement is nowhere near as useful as Porter's.

California doesn't head to the polls until June, but we'll be watching this one throughout the month of May, because assuming a Democrat is elected, they are ex officio Donald Trump's main nemesis. (Z)