May07

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

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Vance Campaigned in Iowa Tuesday

Did we mention that the 2028 presidential race is up and running—even before the midterms? We forget. In any event, J.D. Vance clearly understands that he is no longer the favored child over at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and has to work on it himself. He probably also knows that the only sitting vice president to be elected president since 1836 is George H.W. Bush in 1988, and that happened because Ronald Reagan was popular at the end of his term, so Bush could run as "Reagan's third term." That won't be the case in 2028, so Vance has to win the nomination on his own, possibly against Marco Rubio and maybe even against Don Jr.

So what is a presidential aspirant to do? Go to Iowa, obviously. That's where it always starts. So on Tuesday, Vance headed to Des Moines, where he nominally campaigned for Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA). But Vance is not fooling anyone. He was actually campaigning for J.D. Vance. The chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, Jeff Kaufmann, said he believes this will be the first of many visits by Vance. Since there is an open-seat race for governor, an open-seat race for senator, and four potentially competitive House races, two of which are open-seat, Vance has plenty of cover. That's six races he can campaign in. The House races are surprisingly competitive for a state as red as Iowa. Here is the rundown:

As you can see, IA-01, IA-02, and IA-03 are all very competitive, and the open seat in IA-04 could possibly be, depending on the candidates. Combined with open-seat races for senator and governor, Iowa is going to get a great deal of love until Nov. 3. Then it gets a short vacation until the presidential candidates begin pouring in starting in January.

Vance's campaign is basically about reciting the greatest hits of the Trump/Vance administration. He has to. He is conjoined at the hip with Trump and if Trump is unpopular in 2028, Vance is dead meat. But it's not easy because Iowa is a one-industry state: food. Times are tough on account of Trump's tariffs and the counter tariffs, which badly hurts Iowa's farmers, who depend on the exports of their corn, soybeans, pork, and other farm products for their income. Given that Iowa's problem revolves around foreign policy (trade), Vance has the additional problem is that his likely main competitor, Marco Rubio, can make a better case that he is the foreign-policy expert. Vance has a lot of work to do. He's going to be around the Hawkeye State a lot this year and practically ful-time next year.

The combination of the open Senate seat and three fairly evenly divided House districts has taken a little bit of attention away from the race for governor, the first one since 2006 with no incumbent because Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) decided she's had enough, even though she was eligible to run again. Many observers had expected Feenstra to get the nomination easily, but he hasn't gotten much traction. He has to beat state Rep. Eddie Andrews, former state Rep. Brad Sherman, and former director of the Iowa Dept. of Administrative Services Adam Steen to get the nomination.

Whoever gets the GOP nomination will face state Auditor Rob Sand (D), who is running unopposed. He has benefited from the financial support of his wealthy wife and her family. Todd Blodgett, who worked in the Reagan White House and for the RNC said: "I don't think Randy Feenstra can beat Rob Sand, who is a thoroughbred." Sand frequently quotes the Bible, owns two handguns, and goes deer hunting each fall. He asks audiences to sing "America the Beautiful" at the start of campaign events. He is a folksy kind of guy. A recent Echelon Insights poll has Sand beating Feenstra 51% to 39%. If Feenstra gets the nomination and Sand crushes him, Sand could have coattails that help the Democrats in the other races. With all the races and multiple pickup opportunities for the Democrats, Iowa could end up being one of the most contested states this fall. (V)