Dem
47
GOP
53
On Monday, Donald Trump met with over 100 small business leaders to pitch his tax cuts. His allies think he is wasting his time. Then want him to go full scorched earth. Forget the issues and just blame the Democrats for everything. Inflation? Biden's fault. Crime? Obama's fault. Gas prices? Congressional Democrats' fault. Iran? Hillary's e-mails. Just blame Democrats for everything and run ads day and night doing do. Scare the voters. Works every time. Except when it doesn't.
Normally campaigns don't go negative this early, but Republican operatives sense that the House is probably already lost and the Senate is now 50-50, so going negative and just pounding the Democrats on everything is their last hope. Of course, by November, the Republicans will have had the trifecta for nearly 2 years. By then, it will be a tough sell that the powerless congressional Democrats or past presidents drove gas prices up. But if that is all you have, it is what you use.
One Republican donor said: "If you talk to the NRCC, they're spinning. They were trying to sell the administration's accomplishments but now it is just 'Democrats are bad.'" The donor also said: "When you go negative, that means you;re behind." A spokesman for the NRCC, Mike Marinella, countered that with "The NRCC makes decisions rooted in data and polling, not vibes, which is why we tune out the chattering class. The NRCC is working hand-in-glove with the White House and our battle-tested Republican candidates to hammer vulnerable House Democrats for backing the largest tax hike since World War II, raising taxes on every income level, keeping tips fully taxed, and gutting the child tax credit." Democrats are going to point out that Republicans control the entire government, so whatever happened is their fault.
According to a new WaPo-ABC News/Ipsos poll young voters 18-34 are a real problem, with 52% planning to vote for Democrats and 19% planning to vote for Republicans. This group tends to be especially sensitive to prices and affordability, and yelling that Democrats are the root of all evil is probably not going to resonate with them. Some of them don't remember of Biden years and many of them don't remember the Obama years.
Another problem the NRCC has is that whatever message it cooks up, Trump never stays on message. Maybe the NRCC wants to focus on inflation during the Biden years, but Trump could ruin that by pivoting to how he was robbed of the election in 2020. That is not going to move those 18-34 year olds who are worried about buying gas and food.
And even if Trump gets the message, he sometimes puts it in ways his base laps up but independents and moderates in both parties don't. One of his recent bleats began:
So ironic that Cryin' Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are hiring SLEAZEBAGS like Barack Hussein Obama's Crooked former Attorney General, Eric Holder, and others of that ilk, to look into Voter Integrity, when this same group of Human Garbage RIGGED the 2020 Presidential Election.
For Trump to call the Democrats "human garbage" is a(nother) new low. Can you imagine what would have happened if Joe Biden had called his opponents "human garbage"? Or even if George W. Bush had done that? Trump's base eats that up, but it tends to turn off moderates and independents. So if Trump gets the message from the NRCC "Go negative" and this is what comes out, it may be counterproductive with groups the Republicans desperately need. (V)