Dem
47
GOP
53
Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, wrote an interesting piece on Republican voters. Some people think that there are two kinds of Republicans: MAGA diehards and never Trumpers. She says that her polling shows this is not true and about half of all Republican voters actually fall into a different category: normie Republicans. They are fairly supportive of Trump on many (but not all) issues, but are Republicans because they watch Fox, hate the Democrats, and the Republicans are the only other game in town. However—crucially—they do not think of themselves first and foremost as Trump supporters or members of the MAGA movement.
As the economy continues to go south, more and more Republicans are giving Trump the blame. As a consequence, the number of Republicans who are "party-first" normie Republicans rather than "Trump-first" is rising. This is a bad omen for the GOP.
Although the normie Republicans would never consider voting for a Democrat, they are still a problem for the GOP this year. Among Trump-first Republicans, 62% say they are extremely motivated to vote this year. Among normie Republicans that is only 49%. That is different from past years. At the moment, Democrats are telling pollsters they will walk across hot coals barefoot to vote, while Republicans are not so enthusiastic about voting. In Anderson's polling, 82% of Democrats say it is "extremely important" to win the midterms vs. only 57% of Republicans say that. Among normie Republicans, it is only 47%.
How come? The normie Republicans are unhappy with the economy, health care, foreign affairs and democracy. Only a third support the war in Iran. If large numbers of unhappy normies simply stay home (because voting for a Democrat is out of the question), it could help Democrats up and down the ballot. So turnout will be a big issue in the fall.
So how will the Republicans try to drive turnout? As noted above, they will go negative and attack, attack, attack. Since Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is retiring, she is not as useful as a boogeywoman as she used to be. So Republicans will try to make the election about Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), even though she is only on the ballot in NY-14, and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who isn't on the ballot anywhere. They will blame them for every outrageous thing any Democrat has ever said. Neither had ever called for defunding the police (that was Cori Bush, who was booted by fellow Democrats in the 2024 Democratic primary), but who cares? They will hit Democrats nine ways to Sunday on trans girls in sports. If Democrats refuse to take the bait and just reply "Whatever, but your war of choice is making me pay $5/gal. for gas" the Republicans' ploy probably won't work as well as in 2024 when the price of gas wasn't not on the agenda.
In short, how well Republicans motivate the normies could spell the difference between Trump going down in the history books for having been impeached twice and his having been impeached five times. (V)