Dem
47
GOP
53
Two states are holding primaries tomorrow: Nebraska and West Virginia. Normally, both would be snoozers, since Republicans are going to win nearly all the marbles in both. But there is one race that has national implications: the blue dot. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) is retiring from NE-02, which is Omaha and its suburbs. What makes this race interesting is that the district is D+3, so a Democrat has an actual chance of flipping the seat, more so in a blue wave. Locals call it the "blue dot" in the map of red, red, red Nebraska. Look:
But there is a complicated backstory here. Given the PVI and open seat, multiple Democrats filed, naturally—seven in all. The most prominent ones are state Sen. John Cavanaugh and local businesswoman Denise Powell. So, who cares? A lot of people. The key problem is that the Republican state senators want to change the state's method of awarding electoral votes from a district-based one to winner-take-all. At the moment, they are one vote short. If Cavanaugh wins the primary and then the general election, he will have to vacate his seat in the state Senate. Then Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) will appoint a Republican to it and the unicameral legislature will change the law. That will give the Republicans an extra electoral vote in 2028.
Outside groups have poured millions of dollars into the race to stop Cavanaugh and nominate Powell. No one has any particular gripe against how Cavanaugh votes in the state Senate. The complaint is that he is not a team player. In one ad, the announcer solemnly intones: "Don't let John Cavanaugh give away our blue dot." Cavanaugh's response is that Democrats are sure to pick up at least one seat in the state Senate in November, so when he resigns in Jan. 2027, it won't matter. Others are much less sure of picking up another seat somewhere. That is really the only issue in the campaign.
Cavanaugh is not doing this entirely because he is an egomaniac. Politics is a family tradition with him. His father represented the blue dot in Congress once and his sister is in the state Senate. It should be noted that if Cavanaugh wins the Democratic nomination, there is sure to be a campaign by some Democrats urging Democrats to vote for Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding (R) in the general election. If Cavanaugh loses, he will presumably stay in the Senate and the dot will survive. So, better to give up a House seat than lose an electoral vote.
There is a complicating factor, though. Democrats have the trifecta in Maine. If Cavanaugh is elected to Congress and the Democrats still have the trifecta in January, they could simply change the rules in Maine and also make it winner-take-all, canceling out Nebraska's power play. We are secretly hoping that happens because congressional districts are rarely polled in presidential years, so our procedure of adding up the states isn't quite right. On the other hand, if all states used the Nebraska-Maine rule, that would mean candidates would campaign all over the country instead of only in seven states. Democrats could win electoral votes in Texas and Republicans could win electoral votes in California. (V)