May11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Redistricting Rundown

A number of states have drawn new district lines this year and a number of others are still planning to do so later this year, although time is running out. Here is a quick summary of where things stand now:

• Alabama: The current map in Alabama is 2B, 5W. Face it. It was imposed by a court to force the state to have two majority-minority districts. Alabama AG Steve Marshall has now petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to release it from the court-ordered map and let it draw its own map. This could give the Republicans one extra seat. The argument parallels a recent case in Louisiana, in which the Court struck down a map with two intentionally gerrymandered majority-minority districts. There is a good chance the Court will agree that the situation is similar in both states and so strike the court-ordered map and let the legislature make their own gerrymandered map.
  
  
• California: When Texas started this round, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) took the initiative to organize a referendum bypassing the independent commission until 2032 and letting the legislature draw its own map. The referendum passed. The 2020 map was 43D, 9R but Democrats might win as many as five extra seats with the new map.
  
  
• Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will do anything to get back in Donald Trump's good graces, so he called the legislature back into session and it approved the map he drew. This is very contentious because DeSantis has openly said the whole point of the new map is to give the Republicans 3-5 new seats. Smart guy. He knew the Supreme Court has approved partisan gerrymandering. The only problem is that partisan gerrymandering is explicitly forbidden by the Florida Constitution. The only question now is what alibi the courts will use to get around the state Constitution. Maybe something like: "If the Supreme Court says partisan gerrymandering is good, then states can't override it." There is a detailed article in Wikipedia about the whole process. The current delegation is 8D, 20R. In the maximal case, this could become 3D, 25R but in a blue wave, some districts that were thought to be safe could fall.
  
  
• Indiana: Trump ordered the Indiana state legislature to redraw the map but the votes weren't there. To fix that problem, Trump endorsed challengers to seven state senators who were against a new map. Trump's endorsement and $12 million from outside groups resulted in five of the seven senators being ousted. Indiana could try again to pick up another Republican seat for 2028.
  
  
• Kansas: Republicans tried for a new map but in Kansas, unlike North Carolina, approving a new map follows the regular order and the governor has veto power over the map. Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) would certainly do that and the Republicans don't have the votes to override her veto. So the plan is dead.
  
  
• Louisiana: In its Louisiana v. Callais decision, the Supreme Court struck down the remaining meat of the Voting Rights Act and ruled that the state could not have a map that intentionally created two majority-minority districts out of the six districts. Gov. Jeff Landry (R-LA) cheered and ordered that the primaries be postponed to give the legislature time to draw a new map with no more than one Black majority district. There are so many Black voters in Louisiana, they have to go somewhere, so the new map will probably be 1D, 5R.
  
  
• Mississippi: Gov. Tate Reeves (R-MS) has called the state legislature back into session May 20 for the purpose of redrawing the congressional map to get rid of Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) and have a congressional delegation consisting of four white Republicans. The House will meet in the historic Old Capitol, which witnessed some of the state's most racist history from 1839 to 1903, including the vote to secede from the Union as well as passing laws about poll taxes, literacy tests, and a raft of Jim Crow laws. This is basically a done deal that will make it impossible for the 39% of Mississippians who are Black to elect a Black representative.
  
  
• Missouri: Following Texas' lead, Missouri re-did its maps. The new maps were signed into law on Sept. 28, 2025. The current map is 2D, 6R. Once the new map is in effect for an election cycle, the hoped-for result is 1D, 7R However, it has not yet been in effect, since—obviously—it was only implemented late last year. A court case is now pending and so is a potential referendum that would undo the new map.
  
  
• North Carolina: Last October, the North Carolina General Assembly approved a new 3D, 11R map to replace the old 4D, 10R map, for a new gain of one seat for the Republicans. Although the governor is a Democrat, state law gives the governor no role in redistricting. On Nov. 26, a three-judge panel approved the new map. For a state as balanced as North Carolina, having Republicans hold 79% of the House delegation is an extreme gerrymander.
  
  
• Ohio: The state Constitution actually required a new map because it requires a bipartisan majority for a map to last for 10 years after a census. Otherwise the map is good for only 5 years. The old map resulted in a 5D, 9R delegation. The new one is likely to be 3D, 11R. It won't be challenged in court because the state Constitution mandated that the legislature draw a new map and it did.
  
  
• South Carolina: The Palmetto Bug state has only one Black Representative, Jim Clyburn (D). The legislature wants to get rid of him—and not because it wants a younger Black Democrat. The state House just approved postponing the congressional primaries by 2 months to give the legislature time to redo the map. The primaries for everything except the House will go forward in June as scheduled. The House primaries will be in August. It is a mess since absentee ballots for the June House primaries have already gone out. They cannot be saved for August because the districts will be different then. This stunt will cost the taxpayers of South Carolina over $2 million.
  
  
• Tennessee: Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN) called a special session of the state legislature, which dutifully drew a new map to get rid of the state's only House Democrat. Lee signed the bill last week. Legislators are proud of the fact that they are not "racist"—the one Democrat was white. Now the House delegation is going to be nine white Republicans. But even in Tennessee, DEI lives on. One of the members is a woman, Diana Harshbarger.
  
  
• Texas: This is where it all started. The new map is intended to give the Republicans five additional House seats, but in a blue wave the districts with narrow Republican majorities and many Latinos could end up making it a dummymander.
  
  
• Utah: Utah has an independent commission for drawing maps but the legislature has to approve them. The former did but the latter didn't. The legislature then drew a map dividing Salt Lake County into four pieces. A judge ruled that the map was illegal. The court then hired a special master, who drew a map with 1D, 3R, so Democrats picked up a seat here.
  
  
• Virginia: Virginia Democrats drew a new map giving them 10 of the 11 seats, but in a split decision along partisan lines, the state Supreme Court tossed the map on technical grounds. In principle, state Democrats can try again for 2028, but that would require a new referendum in 2027. It is possible, though.

An analysis by the Cook Political Report has a best-case scenario for the Republicans as R+13. Best case for the Democrats is a wash, with no net change. And again, remember, the final result depends on whether there is a blue wave, a red wave, or no wave at all. If the Republicans created a district with 52% working-class Latinos and 48% wine-sipping tofu-eating, white Democrats with postgraduate degrees, their model is that the Latinos are all for them. We won't know until Nov. 4 if that assumption is right. (V)