May11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Democrats Will Aggressively Gerrymander the Maps in Blue States for 2028

For various reasons, mostly good-government Democrats hamstringing themselves, blue states haven't been able to aggressively respond to the Texas challenge and Callais in 2026. That could well change for 2028, with Democrats throwing caution to the wind and going for maximum gerrymanders in states where they control the process. The motto here would be: "To hell with good government. What's good for the goose is good for the gander." We could see very aggressive new maps in 2028 in a number of states, including these (with the current breakdown):

• Colorado (4D, 4R): Colorado has an independent commission, so a constitutional amendment is needed to pull off a gerrymander. A proposed ballot measure this November would give the legislature the power to draw the 2028 and 2030 maps. Signature gathering is already underway. If it happens and passes, state Democrats already have a map ready that would give them three more House seats.
  
  
• Illinois (14D, 3R): The Illinois House has already approved a ballot measure for November to give the legislature the power to draw a new map. If the state Senate approves, it will go to the voters. A really aggressive map might pick up two new seats, but that would really be pushing it. One is more likely.
  
  
• Maryland (7D, 1R): Maryland Democrats drew a truly weird map that would knock out the last Republican and give Democrats a sweep. It passed the House, but Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) refused to bring it up for a vote. That could change in January when the state Senate elects a new president. It could also require a change to the state's Constitution, but there is plenty of time in 2027 to do that if needed.
  
  
• New Jersey (9D, 3R): Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) is in favor of a new map. Two of the Republican representatives are already vulnerable: Jeff Van Drew (R+5 district) and Thomas Kean Jr. (EVEN district). Making those unwinnable would be easy but it would take a referendum to bypass the independent commission first.
  
  
• New York (19D, 7R): New York Democrats are already pushing hard for a new map. They think that could knock off four of the Republicans. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) is all in favor of a full-fledged gerrymander. She said: "I don't feel like I should be handcuffed in a fight for our democracy. I'll not be handicapped in that fight." Also, here the voters would have to approve.
  
  
• Oregon (5D, 1R): There hasn't been a lot of discussion here and there is the problem of what to do with all the Republicans in the eastern half of the state. Move them to Idaho? This seems to us one of the less likely states to draw a new map, but as they say, where there is a will, there is a corpse way.
  
  
• Virginia (6D, 5R): Virginia almost pulled it off this time but a partisan split decision in the state Supreme Court foiled the Democrats. But the decision was about a technicality involving the timing. Democrats could try again in 2027 and get the timing right. However, this would require another referendum and it is not certain it would pass. It was close this time.
  
  
• Washington (8D, 2R): If the Democrats get supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature in November, they could embark on a plan to redo the map and flip one House seat. But getting supermajorities will be a tough hill to climb and even then, the voters would have to approve. This is not one of the Democrats' best prospects.
  

Republicans started this whole process and are probably going to win Round 1, but Round 2, in 2028, could easily go the other way. If all the stars align, the Democrats could conceivably flip up to 16 seats in 2028. That would pretty much eliminate all the swing districts and House elections would become something of a formality. If Democrats went for broke, that might be able to produce a House with more than 218 solidly-blue districts that would make Elbridge Gerry roll over in his grave. That could highly motivate the Republicans to get behind legislation to permanently eliminate all gerrymandering. (V)