Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, the South Carolina state Senate voted on the list of things that it will do during the remainder of the current legislative session. One possible item for the list was "draw new district maps," which, if it went forward, would have led to a gerrymander that would likely have cost Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), the only Democrat in the state's House delegation, his job. However, 32 votes were needed, and several Republicans crossed the aisle to vote with the Democrats, with the result being that the agenda item was defeated 29-17. In theory, the legislature could try again next session, or Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) could convene a special session. But for now, Clyburn is safe.
Senate Majority Leader Shane Massey (R) gave several explanations for his opposition to re-drawing the maps. First, he said, he's a born-and-bred Southerner who doesn't like taking marching orders from Washington. Second, he fears that if the Democrats (and, by and large, the state's Black voters) are shut out of the political process, they will find ways to make the GOP pay in November. He also said that if there are no Democrats in the state's House delegation, then South Carolina will not have an "in" with the White House the next time there's a Democratic president.
These all seem fairly believable to us. It's certainly a reminder that, for many different reasons, voters (and their elected leaders) hate these kinds of shenanigans. Democrats and independents in particular, but a great many Republicans, too. It may be worth the blowback, politically, if the party is going to gain three or four or five seats in the House. But it's not worth it for one, a conclusion that Republicans in the Indiana state legislature reached about a month before their colleagues in South Carolina.
Of course, this is also a poke in the eye of Donald Trump, who most certainly wanted that extra seat in South Carolina. On Monday night, he broke away from his daily anti-Obama tirade long enough to post this to his fascist-curious social media platform:
The South Carolina State Senate has a big vote tomorrow on Redistricting. I'm watching closely, along with all Republicans across the Country who are counting on their Elected Leaders to use every Legal and Constitutional authority they have to stop the Radical Left Democrats from destroying our Country, including leveling the playing field against their decades of egregious Gerrymandering and Census Rigging. South Carolina Republicans: BE BOLD AND COURAGEOUS, just like the Republicans of the Great State of Tennessee were last week! Move the U.S. House Primaries to August, leave the rest on the same schedule. Everything will be fine. GET IT DONE! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Not only does Trump want as many House seats as he and his party can steal, he particularly wants this one, because he hates Clyburn. Clyburn was a key Joe Biden supporter, and is Black, and for Trump, at least in this case, it's two strikes and you're out.
Massey appears to be a pretty shrewd operator, and so while he was pondering his moves here, he surely checked his calendar and noticed that the deadline for candidates to file for office in South Carolina for this cycle has already passed. So, Trump cannot recruit challengers, the way he did in Indiana. Trump, or his allies, could still spend money to help challengers who already filed, but Trump doesn't like to spend his money (as he sees it), and in most cases, the Republican candidate is unopposed. So, the President is largely out of luck. And if you re-read his message above, he clearly knows it. Observe that he's cajoling and trying to be persuasive, and he is not making threats. He knows he has very few arrows in this particular quiver.
And that is really the big story here. After the Indiana result, there was much verbiage about how Donald Trump's iron grip on the Republican Party has been affirmed. But we weren't so sure about that, which is why our headline that night was a question: "A Good Night for Trump?" As filing deadlines pass (and they almost all have, by now), he loses his very greatest source of influence over Republicans running for reelection. As primaries are held, he loses another source of influence. He's not likely to back a Democrat, except maybe against Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), which means Trump will soon be left with only two sources of leverage: (1) withholding his endorsement this year, or (2) threatening a primary challenge in 2027 (a few states) or 2028 (most states).
Without this leverage, will Republican officeholders do Trump's bidding, if it runs contrary to their own interests? We had our doubts last week. And what happened in South Carolina yesterday did nothing to move us off of that position.
Meanwhile, we have more thoughts on this subject, vis-à-vis Virginia. But we don't want to hit this subject too heavily on any one day, so we'll get to it on Friday. (Z)