Dem
47
GOP
53
When we wrote up the Nebraska election results yesterday, the outcome of the Democratic primary in the D+3 NE-02—the district being vacated by Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE)—was unknown. With 89% of the vote in, businesswoman and activist Denise Powell had 38.9% of the vote to 36.8% for state Sen. John Cavanaugh. We guessed that Powell would hold on to win, as there was no plausible theory for why the final 10% might break 4-to-1 for Cavanaugh, but that was just a guess.
It would seem we were on to something, though. Now that 95%+ of the ballots have been counted, the total is... 38.9% of the vote for Powell, as compared to 36.8% for Cavanaugh. So, things did not budge one bit. There's no way to make up a 2-point gap with less than 5% of the vote still out, and so Powell will indeed be the nominee.
Powell will now face off against Brinker Harding (R). He sounds like a character in a Charles Dickens novel, but he's actually an Omaha city councilman and 4th-generation Nebraskan. He is running on a platform of slashing the federal budget and owning the libs. If he gets sent to Washington, one of those two things will go right out the window. The only poll of the race, which is very old, had Powell leading Harding by 5 points. That's not a great data point, but the blue lean of the district, the national climate, and our sense that Harding is not a great fit lead us to conclude that Powell is the favorite here. This is the kind of seat the Democrats simply must flip to retake the House, so both parties will certainly spend big on this one. (Z)