Dem
47
GOP
53
A great deal of attention had been paid to the possibility, maybe even the likelihood, of the Democrats flipping Senate seats in Maine and North Carolina. There has also been a lot of attention to possible longshot Democratic wins in Senate races in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. Also on the agenda are the independents running for the Senate in Montana and Nebraska.
There has been much less attention to the races where Democrats are defending open seats or vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Initially, the most vulnerable seemed to be Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA). But he has a couple of things going for him. First, he is a fundraising powerhouse, raising $78 million this cycle and spending $51 million of it, leaving him with $27 million in the bank. Second, the Republicans are having a brutal three-way primary and are bleeding cash. All the general election polls have Ossoff ahead by 2-9 points, probably because the Republicans are bludgeoning each other to death. All in all, Ossoff is in surprisingly good shape.
Much further under the radar is Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is retiring and where it is the Democrats who are having a brutal three-way primary. The Democrats are Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed. There the Republicans have their candidate in former Rep. Mike Rogers. A new Glengariff poll shows how close it is. Rogers beats Stevens 43.8% to 41.5%. He beats McMorrow 42.8% to 30.7%. Against El-Sayed, Rogers beats him 44.7% to 39.8%, which is (barely) outside the 4-point margin of error. In other words, Democrats need to worry about defense as well as offense.
The only other Democratic seat that might be in danger is the open seat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is leaving behind. There it is the Democrats who have their candidate, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) while the Republicans have two plausible candidates, both former senators: John Sununu and Scott Brown. The most recent poll has Sununu ahead of Brown by 37 points. The second most recent one has Sununu up to 29 points, so it looks like Sununu vs. Pappas. The last 10 general election polls have Pappas ahead of Sununu by between 2 and 14 points, averaging a 7-point lead.
So on the defense side for the Democrats, Georgia is not the biggest worry, nor is New Hampshire. The trouble spot appears to be Michigan. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the Michigan primary is Aug. 4, so the blood will continue flowing for almost 3 more months. The one potential saving grace here is that this is not an ideological war. All three are fairly progressive and probably all of them are acceptable to the supporters of the losers, so it is unlikely that there will be a long period of sulking starting Aug. 5, with supporters of the losing candidates threatening to sit this one out. (V)