Dem
47
GOP
53
Who would have thought that a primary election in Louisiana was a really big deal? But turns out it is. Politico's headline "Bill Cassidy's fall is a warning sign for other Trump enemies" hits the nail on the head. And if Trump defeats Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) tomorrow (see below), Trump's conversion of the Republican Party to the Trumpublican Party will be complete.
In the event you took off the weekend to do something fun (i.e., a 2-day vacation from politics), Louisiana held partisan primaries on Saturday. Since 1975, Louisiana has held jungle primaries, but the legislature decided to go back to partisan primaries starting this year. In the race for the Republican nomination for the Senate, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA), who has Donald Trump's endorsement, got 45%, Trumpy state Treasurer John Fleming got 28%, and Cassidy got 25%. Letlow and Fleming will meet in a runoff on June 27. Farmer Jamie Davis came in first in the Democratic primary with 47%, but the second and third place candidates are separated by only 284 votes, so there could be a recount to see which one makes the runoff. It doesn't actually matter though, since Letlow is already busy planning how she will decorate her Senate office.
In Trump's eyes, Cassidy's mortal sin was voting to convict him in 2021 after his second impeachment. Cassidy made it worse when he asked nasty questions of Robert Kennedy Jr. during Kennedy's confirmation hearing. Cassidy, a physician, ultimately voted for Kennedy's confirmation (against his better judgment), but Trump not only demands total loyalty in everyone's actions, he insists that they pretend they really mean it as well. Grudgingly supporting him is almost as bad as not supporting him. Cassidy had a massive war chest, but that wasn't enough against Trump's endorsement.
In the long run, Trump will get the last laugh. But maybe not in the medium run. Cassidy will remain a member of the Senate until Jan. 3, 2027, along with Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), whom Trump also forced into retirement, clearing the way for Democrat Roy Cooper to probably become the next senator from North Carolina. Both Cassidy and Tillis are now free agents who don't have to worry about appeasing the President anymore. Neither does Sen. Addison Mitchell McTurtle (R-KY), who is retiring for health reasons. On specific bills, they may be able to lasso Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) to vote with them against Trump, because Collins is in the fight of her life this year and needs to show Maine independents that she is not Trump's puppet. Also, Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are not likely to be cowed by Cassidy's defeat. Both are up in 2028. Paul is very stubborn and Trump can't defeat Murkowski in the 2028 Republican primary because there won't be one. Alaska has gone over to an open primary followed by a top-four ranked choice general election, so Democrats and independents will ultimately decide her fate. Most of them will rank her second, after the Democratic candidate.
Cassidy, it should be noted, ran a terrible campaign. His campaign materials generally made a point of identifying him as Doctor Bill Cassidy, and not Senator Bill Cassidy. The obvious subtext there is "I'm a guy who knows public health, and makes that my priority." But, as he showed with his RFK Jr. vote, that is clearly not true. So, for non-MAGA voters, the "Doctor" bit just underscores what a phony he is. And for MAGA voters, it underscores that even if Cassidy supported Trump, he didn't really mean it. That was a spectacularly bad choice of messaging. And the proof is in the pudding. Despite wide name recognition and vast amounts of money at his disposal, he didn't even make it to the runoff, much less the general election. He is the first sitting senator to be primaried in 14 years (i.e., since Dick Lugar got primaried by Richard Mourdock in Indiana in 2012). Clearly, the Senator is not related to (fictional cowboy) Hopalong Cassidy, since Hopalong always won HIS battles.
Meanwhile, Trump is definitely feeling his oats. He called Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) weak-minded and invited people to challenge her in her primary. She has been one of his strongest supporters as long as she has been in Congress. But she broke with him on one issue: the Epstein files, which her constituents want released. Now she is persona non grata. Republicans need to learn that being with Trump 99% of the time or 99.9% of the time or 99.99% of the time doesn't hack it. The only number that works is 100%. And 100% with enthusiasm, at that. (V)