May18

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

...And Elections Future

There are primary elections in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania tomorrow, but one of them dwarfs all the others: the Republican primary in KY-04. It contains Cincinnati suburbs on the Kentucky side of the Ohio River as well as rural areas to the east and west. The incumbent is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), a Trump critic and big fan of getting all the Epstein files out there. Trump hates Massie more than he hates any Democrat and absolutely wants to take him down. Trump hates Massie even more than he hates Bill Cassidy, and that is a whole lot of hate, since Cassidy's "sin" was to try to kick Trump out of office. Trump's allies have dumped so much money into this race it has become the most expensive House primary in history, with $26 million spent.

Trump recruited former Navy SEAL and local farmer Ed Gallrein, endorsed him, and helped him. Massie is well known and well liked in the district, but will that be enough to withstand the Trump onslaught? If Gallrein wins, especially after Cassidy's defeat Saturday, no Republican who opposes Trump is safe (except maybe senators not up until 2030, and maybe not even them). The entire House and Senate Republican caucuses will sit down in front of Trump and beg like well-trained dogs. He will be unstoppable. The country will be doomed. On the other hand, if Massie wins, especially if he wins big, some Republicans may actually go look to see if they can find where they put their spines. For the record, Kentucky primaries are closed, so non-Republicans who want to poke Trump in the eye can't vote for Massie, unless they happened to re-register in time. Nope, the Representative will have to survive largely based on the votes of actual Republicans.

If Trump defeats both Cassidy and Massie, the conversion of the GOP from the center-right political party of Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and two Bushes into a cult of personality that would make Chairman Mao blush will be complete. That may continue until after the midterms, at which point Trump officially becomes a lame duck. Then what? After Mao died in 1976, China was plunged into chaos. Will that happen to the Republican Party when Trump leaves office? Or maybe even in 2028? Will there be a power struggle between the Trumpists (led by J.D. Vance), the pretend Trumpists (led by Marco Rubio), the non-Trumpists (led by Gov. Brian Kemp, R-GA) and maybe other groups? We certainly don't know. But we do know that when Mao died, there was a huge power struggle. The "gang of four," which supported Mao, was arrested and imprisoned, and the ultimate winner of the struggle, Deng Xiaoping, quietly, but firmly, erased everything Mao stood for and wanted. The problem with cults is that they generally last only as long as the leader lasts (with the Kims in North Korea and the Duvaliers in Haiti being among the rare exceptions).

Also up in Kentucky is the seat of Mitch McConnell, who is finally going gentle into that good night. The main Republicans running are Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY), Trump's favorite, and AG Daniel Cameron, who is Black. On the Democratic side it is former state Rep. Charles Booker, Marine Corps vet Amy McGrath (who ran before and lost) and a bunch of minor players. The smart money says Barr will beat Booker in the general election.

The Alabama election is a mess since the state just got the green light from the Supreme Court to redraw the map at the last minute to eliminate one or both majority-minority districts. The voters don't understand what is going on and we are not sure candidates do either. Nor do the judges. On Friday there will be a hearing about the map.

In Georgia, a key race is the one for the Republican Senate nomination. Running are Reps. Buddy Carter (R-GA) and Mike Collins (R-GA). Also in the mix is Derek Dooley, a football coach who lives in Tennessee. Dooley has the support of Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA). Polls have Collins solidly ahead, but there will probably be a runoff. The winner will face Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA). This will be a knock-down, drag-out battle, with the Republicans throwing everything they have at Ossoff. Well, OK, maybe that is what will happen. If Ossoff looks to be unbeatable, then the GOP might redirect its resources elsewhere, since it has much territory to defend, and Georgia is just a "bonus" that won't matter if the Republicans can hold on to the seats they already have.

The open Republican primary in GA-11 is interesting. Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA) is retiring and his former chief of staff, Rob Adkerson, wants his former boss' job. So does Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore. Other candidates include a county chair, Chris Mora, and a neurosurgeon, John Cowan. Trump hasn't endorsed in the race. It's R+12, so whichever Republican makes it to the general will succeed Loudermilk.

At the state level, the gubernatorial race is a humdinger and early turnout has been enormous (see below for more).

Georgia also has three state Supreme Court justices up for reelection. In the past, nobody cared much about these races, but after the blowout in Wisconsin, this one is very much in the news. Nominally, Georgia Supreme Court justices are nonpartisan, but nobody believes that anymore. They are just politicians who wear robes at work. Most states have a seven-justice Supreme Court, but Georgia has a nine-justice court. Here is the current composition.

All but John Ellington are Republican appointees. Ellington was elected and appears to be nonpartisan. The Court is thus 8-0-1 for the Republicans. Three Republican appointees are up tomorrow: Sarah Warren, Charlie Bethel and Ben Land. Warren and Bethel have opponents. Land is unopposed. If there is a blue wave and two Democrats are elected, that will change the Court to 6-2-1. That won't flip any results, but in 2028, three more Republican appointees are up. Tomorrow's races are not primaries for a November election. The winners will be seated immediately. Justices serve 6-year terms.

Warren is being challenged by Jen Jordan, a former Democratic state senator. Bethel, a former Republican state senator, is being challenged by Miracle Rankin, the former president of the Georgia Association of Black Women Attorneys. Despite the official nonpartisan nature of the elections, groups aligned with the Democrats and Republicans are pouring money into the races. The political nature of the races is further emphasized by the fact that all the candidates except Land have campaign managers.

There isn't much to see in Idaho—just which Republican will win each office. Oregon is the mirror image of its neighbor. Gov. Tina Kotek (D-OR) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) are running for reelection and it barely matters who the Republicans nominate in both races. They will be crushed.

In Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) is a shoo-in for another term and there is no race for the Senate. However, there is a battle in the Democratic primary in PA-07. This is an R+1 district covering Bethlehem and Allentown and represented in the House by Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R-PA). Nevertheless, Democrats smell blood in the water, and four of them have filed: president of the Firefighters Union Bob Brooks, former DoJ prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, former Senate staffer Carol Obando-Derstine and progressive Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure. Republicans have been not-so-secretly helping McClure, whom they see as the weakest candidate.

Also of interest is the Pennsylvania General Assembly, where the Republicans have a 27-23 majority in the Senate and the Democrats have a 102-99 majority in the House, with two vacancies, both in red districts. There are 27 districts with a contested Democratic primary and 25 districts with a contested Republican primary. In the others, the incumbent has not drawn any challengers. There are eight open seats in the House, four with a Democrat and four with a Republican. There are no open seats in the Senate. This means either or both chambers could flip in November.

Next week we have a biggie: the runoff between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Ken Paxton. That could determine control of the next Senate. (V)