Dem
47
GOP
53
Georgia Democrats see a once-in-a-generation chance to win the governorship of the Peach State. Brian Kemp is term limited and they have seven primary candidates from which the voters can choose. Only, many Democrats don't like the one with a huge lead in the polls. That would be former judge, mayor of Atlanta and White House adviser Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Many Democratic strategists are worried about how she ran Atlanta during the pandemic and how that could be an albatross around her neck in the general election. They expect that if Bottoms gets the nomination, Republicans will make the entire campaign about some of the unpopular things she did as mayor and also the increase in crime during the pandemic. One long-time Democratic strategist said: "The Republicans will eat her for lunch. The Republicans are begging us to nominate her." The strategist also felt that if Bottoms is the gubernatorial nominee, that could hurt the entire ticket, including Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who is running for a second term. On the other hand, her campaign spokesman pointed out that Bottoms brought nine Fortune 500 companies to Atlanta and left the city with a $180 million budget surplus.
This could be the Democrats' last shot at all the levers of power. Kemp is planning to redraw all the congressional and state legislative districts for 2028, which could lock Democrats out of power for years to come.
The polling shows that three of the other contenders are in a statistical tie for second place, 30 points behind Bottoms. They are former DeKalb County Executive Michael Thurmond, progressive state Sen. Jason Esteves and moderate Republican-turned-Democrat Geoff Duncan. If the three of them and the other minor candidates can hold Bottoms below 50%, there will be a runoff. In that case, if all the anti-Bottoms voters go for the non-Bottoms candidate, she could be defeated. If Bottoms advances past the primary and wins the general, it would be historic: the first Black woman elected governor of a state anywhere in the country. However, nonwhite women have been elected as governor, namely, Nikki Haley (South Carolina, 2010), Susana Martinez (New Mexico, 2010), and Michelle Lujan Grisham (New Mexico, 2018). Haley is an Indian-American; Martinez and Grisham are Latinas.
On the Republican side, billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson is polling at 28%, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R-GA) is at 25% and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is third at 14%. Jackson is not without his own problems. He is 71 and healthcare executives are only slightly more popular than used-car dealers. The way he got to be on top in the polling is that he has already spent $50 million of his own money and plans to spend plenty more. But in the general election, attacking a healthcare executive when people are fuming about the cost of healthcare could be like shooting fish in a barrel. Also, Jones has Donald Trump's endorsement, which is always helpful in Republican primaries.
The Democrats may be crying a bit too early. Polls have Bottoms solidly beating both Jackson and Jones by 6 points and (barely) beating Raffensperger by 2 points. Despite Bottoms' problems with what happened when she was mayor (including riots after the killing of George Floyd), against a hated healthcare executive, she might have a decent shot, despite the massive ad blitz Jackson would unleash against her. We think that Bottoms vs. Jones could go either way. (V)