Dem
47
GOP
53
Republicans are working on a new reconciliation bill to fund ICE. However, the temptation is always there to turn every bill into a Christmas tree and hang shiny ornaments from it. This time, they are trying to sneak in $1 billion for a room which Donald Trump wants to use to hold his balls. Even in the Senate, $1 billion is noticeable. However, reconciliation bills may not contain items that are not primarily about the budget. The way this works is that Senate parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, gives the bill what is known as a "Byrd bath" to see if any non-budget items are lurking in there. She did that and discovered the $1 billion is for what is essentially a real estate project, not primarily budgetary, and is not allowed. Senate rules are so complicated that MacDonough has a staff of 6 people who try to help her understand them.
The parliamentarian's ruling is not binding. The full Senate could vote to overrule her, but Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) understands that once the Senate starts overruling MacDonough, who is widely respected among the senators for being honest and fair, the next time the Democrats have the trifecta, they will put Medicare for All, Voting Rights, abortion, and many other pet items in their first reconciliation bill, let her say that is not allowed, then overrule her. Thune doesn't want that.
What will Thune do now? He could try to tweak the bill to somehow get MacDonough to approve it. That won't be easy, but if he can't convince her, it is going to put him on a collision course with Trump. The Donald wants the taxpayers to pay for his ballroom so he can keep the $400 million various friendly billionaires "donated" to the ballroom project.
Another potential problem is that even a reconciliation bill needs 51 votes in the Senate. One could imagine that Thom Tillis and Bill Cassidy are in no mood for helping Trump with his vanity project now. Rand Paul is a budget hawk and may also refuse to get on board. If Susan Collins votes for it, Graham Platner is going to hang it around her neck. Maybe Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) will save Trump's bacon.
If Trump has to surrender the $400 million in donations he got to pay for the actual construction, he is going to be in a foul mood for a long time. Also, if the ballroom is paid for by private donations, it may be much easier (legally) for a subsequent president to have it demolished than if it is government property (although Trump simply ordered the East Wing to be demolished, even though it was government property). (V)