May20

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

The Grift of the Century Gets Griftier

It is not common that there is a significant election and it's not our lead item of the day. But these are not normal times in which we are living.

(Z), the historian on staff, is very leery of declaring things to be the worst ever, or the most extreme example in American history, or the like, because 250+ years is a long time, and one must be wary of a presentist bias. But there is just no question that the grift that the Trump administration is trying to perpetrate, with the $1,776,000,000 slush fund, is the biggest in American history. Teapot Dome, ABSCAM, Credit Mobilier, the Bush administration's too-cozy relationship with Haliburton—they all pale in comparison. The closest thing is maybe the Burr Conspiracy, wherein former VP Aaron Burr may have tried to grab a bunch of government-owned land and to secede and form an independent country. But that was never proven and besides, even if that was the plan, it was not successful.

Anyhow, the actual settlement agreement was released late Monday, and it's a doozy. On one hand, it's crafted to create a veneer of accountability, since the funds will ostensibly be awarded by a 5-person panel, and that panel will not be appointed by Donald Trump. However, the truth of the matter is that there is no accountability at all. The 5-person panel will be appointed by Acting AG Todd Blanche, whose sole concern is pleasing his boss, and any member who does not "live up" to their responsibilities can be fired by Trump. So much for them being "independent."

All of that was already known yesterday, but now that the agreement is out there, in black and white, it's clear exactly how little accountability there really is. Here are the key terms of the agreement:

• Once the money is transferred to the 5-person panel, the U.S. government no longer has any control over it.
  
  
• The panel will be allowed to make up its own procedures for awarding the funds, including decisions about who can apply, what they need to do to make a claim, and how much a "victim" will receive.
  
  
• The panel will also decide, on a case-by-case basis, how much "evidence" is needed in support of a claim. The claim itself is enough to be awarded money, the committee can decide if any additional evidence is needed.
  
  
• The decisions of the panel cannot be challenged by appeal, arbitration, or judicial review. All decisions are final.
  
  
• The panel has no duty to make its deliberations or its decisions public. The only requirement is that it submit a report, once per quarter, to Blanche. Blanche can then choose whether or not to share that report with the general public. He said he "expects" to do so. We "expect" that he'll hold off on sharing the reports until hell freezes over and pigs fly.

Let's put it this way: Imagine that the panel decides to award every single cent to Trump himself. That is a violation of the signed agreement, and would be plainly illegal. But how would anyone, other than Blanche and the five panel members, even know? And would any of the six people in the know do anything about the obviously fraudulent act? Clearly, the answer is "no."

But wait, there's more. On Tuesday morning, an addendum signed by Blanche himself was added to the agreement. The addendum states that the IRS must drop all audits of Trump's tax returns, and that the agency will be "FOREVER BARRED and PRECLUDED" from ever pursuing investigations of anything tax-related, from Trump or his family or his businesses, that predates the new agreement. That means that the Trumps would be off the hook for ANY tax shenanigans they've perpetrated since, well, the beginning of time. And since it's possible to file amended returns, it might even be possible for Trump to indemnify future shenanigans by stashing them in old returns. Let's also remember that this year's tax deadline has passed, which means Trump has presumably filed his returns. What if, knowing that this deal was brewing, he demanded a tax refund of $5 billion from the federal government? In theory, the government would have to give it to him, and would have no right to say "boo!"

There is arguably an even more troubling implication here. Trump could use the money, again without oversight, to fund a private militia. Between the pardon power and the $1,776,000,000.00, he could potentially make working for him as a Blackshirt very lucrative and potentially prosecution-proof. And actually, Trump doesn't really care if these folks are actually prosecution-proof. All he cares is that they THINK they are prosecution-proof, since that is enough to get them to do his bidding. And in case you think this is a little conspiratorial, well, it's not our conspiracy. It is courtesy of Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD).

We'll give a couple of concrete examples that speak to how very bad this smells. First, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) came out publicly against the compensation fund yesterday, telling reporters he's "not a big fan." Thune usually plays things close to the vest, and can usually be counted upon to back Trump, so his apostasy is notable. Further, he's not just any senator, he's the majority leader. Generally, when the majority leader says something like this publicly, the subtext is "You better drop this, or you could have trouble in the Senate."

Second, Brian Morrissey is the Treasury Department's chief legal officer. Well, actually, he was the chief legal officer until yesterday, when he resigned. It is possible that the timing is just a coincidence, but that stretches credulity. And Morrissey did not blast the White House on the way out the door, so this wasn't an act of protest. That leaves us with the most plausible explanation, which is that laws and legal ethics are about to take a beating, and he doesn't want to be around for it. Going to prison and/or losing your law license is not a great outcome for someone who still has multiple decades left in their legal career.

We do not know what is going to happen next. Certainly, there will be many lawsuits, though we have no idea who will be able to establish standing. Congress could well get involved; this grift is so brazen, and the GOP would take so much punishment, that the whole thing might be a bridge too far. Whatever is going to happen, the rubber is likely to hit the road soon. Former Trump advisor/henchman Michael Caputo has already filed the first claim, and many others are sure to come rolling in soon.

Trump is betting the farm on this stunt. If it works, he will get maybe $1-2 billion and a bunch of allies. However, if the Democrats are able to tie voters' financial pain to Trump's grift, it could be a bloodbath in the Senate in November. Campaigns based on "The $2 billion Trump stole from you could have provided subsidies to make your healthcare affordable" could take off if done right. Despite all the gerrymandering, the Democrats are still favored to win the House. On account of the unforced error Trump made in the Texas Senate race yesterday (see below), the Senate is probably now 50-50. A Democratic Senate means no more judges or justices and most important, when the House impeaches Trump in 2027, there will be an extensive and well-publicized trial in the Senate with a real possibility that under public pressure, enough Republican senators will finally have had their fill of Trump and vote for conviction and banning him from ever being president again (thus ending all "third term" speculation). (Z)