May20

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Massie-cre

Donald Trump has claimed another victim, another corpse to toss on the pile of "Republican politicians who displeased me." Following the demise of Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), as well as those state senators in Indiana, the Kentucky votes are in, and relative unknown Ed Gallrein (R) has primaried Trump nemesis Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), 54.8% to 45.2%. In other words, it wasn't even close.

Consequently, Massie is a free agent (and see below for more). He wasn't exactly being constrained by Trump's demands before; we'll see what the Representative does now that he's got nothing to lose. In his concession speech last night, Massie decreed: "What happened today, what happened tonight, was God's will. And we have to figure out what was the purpose of having the biggest fight ever." Hard to know what that means... if anything. The result was certainly Trump's will. Maybe Massie is equating Trump with God to try to get back in his good graces.

There were quite a few meaningful contests last night, over and above the Massie race, so let's organize this by office:

• Governor, Alabama: Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is term-limited, and yesterday Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) easily won his party's nomination to replace her, taking 84.4% of the GOP vote. The Democrat will be former senator Doug Jones, who took 78.6% of the vote in his primary. Tuberville is the dumbest man in the Senate, but that clearly does not bother Alabamians. Nor does the fact that he's a carpetbagger who actually lives in Florida. Jones' only hope is that Tuberville gets involved in a sex scandal, à la Roy Moore. The problem is that if a skeleton like that exists in Tuberville's closet, it surely would have been discovered by now. The second problem is that, after a decade-plus of Donald Trump and his shenanigans, even a history of perverse sex acts might not be enough to derail a Republican candidate. This is 2026; Moore was 2017.
  
  
• Governor, Georgia: As expected, Keisha Lance Bottoms will be the Democratic nominee; she'll avoid a runoff by virtue of having claimed 56.2% of the vote. Some Democratic pooh-bahs did not want her as their standard-bearer, but she's the standard-bearer they've got. The Republican primary will produce a runoff, with Lt. Gov Burt Jones and billionaire Rick Jackson taking 38.4% and 32.5% of the vote, respectively. Secretary of State and Trump nemesis Brad Raffensperger is out of the running, having claimed just 15% of the vote. For what it is worth, nearly 1.1 million Democrats showed up to vote in that party's less competitive primary, whereas fewer than 950,000 Republicans showed up to vote in that party's more competitive primary. Perhaps the U.S. will get its first-ever elected Black, female governor.
  
  
• Governor, Oregon: Gov. Tina Kotek (D), who is not wildly popular, will have a rematch with state Sen. Christine Drazan (R). Against a moderate Republican, in a GOP-friendly year, Kotek might be vulnerable, having won the first time by about 5 points. Against a not-so-moderate Republican, in a Democratic-friendly year, we suspect Kotek will keep her job. That said, the two polls of the Kotek vs. Drazan matchup gave Kotek an average lead of 2.5 points. So, this one may be worth watching.
  
  
• Governor, Pennsylvania: Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) will face off in the general against former state treasurer Stacy Garrity (R). This is not a surprise, since both candidates were unopposed. The polls of the race give Shapiro an average lead of 20 points. So, this one is not worth watching, unless you're scouting potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates.
  
  
• U.S. Senator, Alabama: The only question here is which Republican will replace Tuberville in the Senate. Rep. Barry Moore, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, has advanced to a runoff, with 39.2% of the vote. His opponent will be either former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, who sits at 25.6% with 95%+ reporting, or state AG Steve Marshall, who sits at 24.5%. The ultimate nominee will very likely be Moore, who will very likely face off against and defeat Hudson on June 16. Then, Moore (or some other Republican, if he loses) will defeat either attorney Everett Wess or entrepreneur Dakarai Larriett, both of whom are Black, both of whom advanced to the Democratic runoff, and both of whom have no chance of being elected.
  
  
• U.S. Senator, Georgia: Rep. Mike Collins (R) claimed 40.5% of the vote, while former football coach Derek Dooley got 30.2%. They will advance to the runoff on June 16. Rep. Buddy Carter (R), with just 25% of the vote, is on the outside looking in. The winner of Collins-Dooley will face Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who had no opposition yesterday. The pollsters all think it's going to be Collins in the general, and so have only been polling Collins vs. Ossoff. They have Ossoff as about a 5-point favorite. Donald Trump hasn't endorsed here, but he has said kind things about the very Trumpy Collins. Dooley is backed by Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA). If Collins wins big, that could cloud Kemp's 2028 presidential chances.
  
  
• U.S. Senator, Idaho: Given that Sen. Jim Risch (R) is incumbent, and is a loyal Trump cultist, he performed surprisingly poorly. He still got two-thirds of the vote, though, and so will once again advance to the general and will once again be elected. His Democratic victim is consultant and perennial candidate David Roth, who is 0-for-3 in his previous runs for office, and will soon up that to 0-for-4.
  
  
• U.S. Senator, Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R) had two things going for him, namely Donald Trump's endorsement and white skin. It is therefore no surprise that he defeated former state AG Daniel Cameron, who had neither the endorsement nor the white skin, in a laugher, 60.5% to 30.8%. Barr will face off against former state Rep. Charles Booker (D), who has run for the Senate and lost once before this (in 2022). By virtue of taking 46.8% of the vote, Booker outpaced the 35.9% collected by Marine Corps veteran Amy McGrath, who has also run for the Senate and lost once before this (in 2020). Booker is young, charismatic, Black, and running in a blue-wave-y type year, in a state that does have a Democratic governor. However, he starts out as a heavy underdog; the one poll of the general election matchup has Barr up by 10 points.
  
  
• AL-02, etc.: AL-02 is currently a swing district that leans Democratic, at D+5. That will cease to be true once the state legislature redraws its maps, leaving one very blue district and six very red districts. Indeed, there wasn't even a primary in AL-02 yesterday, as four of the seven districts had their primaries put on hold until the maps are done. We just wanted to remind readers what is going on.
  
  
• GA-02: At D+4, this is nominally Georgia's only swingy district. However, the PVI actually tells a false tale. The district has been represented by Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) for 17 terms. You don't become dean of your state's House delegation without learning a few tricks about getting reelected. He will make that 18 at the expense of entrepreneur Matt Day (R), a white fellow who thinks he knows better what Black Georgians need than the Black man who's been representing the district since the 1990s. Did we mention that the district is 49% Black? We suspect that most of those folks will not find Day's argument persuasive.
  
  
• OR-05: Also D+4, this is Oregon's only swingy district. Unlike Sanford Bishop on the other side of the country, Rep. Janelle Bynum (D) is in the midst of her first term in the House. She will face off against Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair (R), who took 59.7% of the vote in a 2-person race. Bynum appears to be fairly popular, and between incumbency and the general political climate, she's the clear favorite here.
  
  
• PA-01: In contrast to Kentucky and Idaho (and soon Alabama), which have no swing districts, and Georgia and Oregon, which have just one, Pennsylvania has many seats that could change hands in November. Way near the top of the list is the D+1 PA-01. It's one of three House districts that Kamala Harris won that is represented by a Republican. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has spent the last 1½ years walking a careful line between MAGA and sanity. Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) easily won the right yesterday to try to knock Fitzpatrick off, taking 65.1% of the vote. We suspect that the national political climate, plus the increasingly blue hue of the Philly suburbs, will be more than Fitzpatrick can handle.
  
  
• PA-07: This R+1 district is awfully similar to PA-01, excepting that it's Philly exurbs rather than suburbs, and the Republican who currently represents the district is Ryan Mackenzie, who is more MAGA than Brian Fitzpatrick is. The frontrunner for the Democratic nomination was initially former county executive Lamont McClure, but he was overtaken by progressive former firefighter Bob Brooks, who took 40.1% of the vote yesterday, to 20.6% for McClure and 20.5% for former DoJ prosecutor Ryan Crosswell. If you're thinking "shades of Graham Platner," well, you're not the only one. Certainly, voters in PA-07 will have a very clear choice to make.
  
  
• PA-08: This district is R+4, and its Republican representative, Rob Bresnahan, is also at risk. He's very wealthy, however, so he can self-fund in his effort to keep his job. He will face off against Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D); it's hard to think of a political office that says "blue collar" more loudly than "Mayor of Scranton." It wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see "Scranton Joe" show up to campaign for Cognetti, since the DCCC has made this district—held for more than a decade by the blue team before Bresnahan won the term he's now serving—a top target.
  
  
• PA-10: This one is R+3, and is yet another Republican-held district being targeted by Democrats. Rep. Scott Perry, who was unopposed yesterday, will face former news anchor Janelle Stelson (D), who easily dispatched her sole opponent with 67.5% of the vote. She is running a very centrist campaign.
  
  
• PA-17: And finally, at D+3, this is the only swingy Pennsylvania district currently held by a Democrat. That would be Rep. Chris Deluzio, who was unopposed yesterday. He will be challenged by Beaver County Sheriff Tony Guy (R), who appears to be, well, just a guy. He's running a pretty MAGA campaign, focused on scapegoating immigrants and "protecting" women's sports, which seems a poor fit for a blue-leaning district.

That's the news for now. Next week is the big election in Texas, aka the "Requiem for Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)." Keep reading if you don't know what we mean. (Z)