May20

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Trump Foolishly Endorses Paxton

AG Ken Paxton (R-TX) entered the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by John Cornyn on November 12 of last year. There was no doubt that Cornyn would run for reelection, so Donald Trump has had 189 days to make an endorsement. He finally did so yesterday, bestowing his blessing on Paxton.

Let us explain why Trump did this before we get into the discussion of why it was all kinds of stupid. The primary driver of this hasty and impetuous act was... John Thune. Trump is very angry at Thune, because: (1) Thune refuses to fire (or get the Senate to overrule) Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, so that the Senate can pass the $1 billion for Trump's balls, and (2) Thune dared to be critical of the slush fund (see above). Thune is not up this year, but he's backing Cornyn, and so poking Cornyn in the eye is a way to poke Thune in the eye, by proxy.

The other reason Trump did this is that he wants the "win." He likes to brag about his shiny batting average. Further, if Trump can take down two sitting senators in 2 weeks, not to mention Thomas Massie, then he hopes and believes the remaining senators will tremble at the mere mention of his name. Controlling the House is not such a problem for the Donald, since Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is an obedient lapdog, and since most House Republicans are too scared to break ranks. Getting the Senate to do Trump's bidding is much harder, because of arcana like the filibuster.

And now we move on to the "What a moron!" part of the discussion. Here is a list of the most obvious ways in which this was a very foolish move by Trump:

• Texas in Play: If we were going to build the ideal Democratic candidate for Texas from scratch, then a mild-mannered, easygoing, elected official with some experience but not too much who is studying to become a Protestant minister would be the way to go. And the ideal Republican opponent would be an adulterous, corrupt, long-time politician who has been both indicted for crimes and impeached. That is now almost certainly going to be the matchup in the general election.
  
  Meanwhile, Trump's endorsement, at this point, did... nothing. Paxton was almost certainly going to win anyhow. And he's not going to get more votes in November because he has Trump's backing. On the other hand, "this is the candidate that Trump wanted," which is substantively different than "this is the candidate Trump backed when there were no options remaining," most certainly will get more Democrats and independents to the polls in November. We could be looking at a Roy Moore-like extinction event.
  
  If the Democrats do take the Texas seat, then North Carolina and Maine will likely flip, too. And if the Democrats can hold on to Georgia and Michigan, then they will only need one among Alaska, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska and Ohio. The blue team would prefer Ohio among those, since Sherrod Brown can actually vote like a Democrat most of the time, whereas the other four would have to act like "independents" to a greater or lesser extent, but beggars can't be choosers.
  
  
• Money: Once again, the "author" of The Art of the Deal has demonstrated that when it comes to money matters, he is basically lost. The GOP establishment spent north of $100 million trying to save Cornyn's bacon (well, it's Texas, so trying to save his burnt end). If Trump had endorsed 6 months ago, most of that money could have been saved for other races. Now, it's gone with the wind. Further, if the Republicans hope to save Texas, they will have to throw buckets of money at Paxton. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who is as much a Trump bootlicker as anyone, guessed that it will take $300 million.
  
  If Trump had backed Cornyn, that probably would have saved the Senator. Big-time cash outlays would still have been needed, but maybe just $30 million for the primary, and around $100 million for the general. Instead, the GOP might spend that $130 million, and then a quarter-billion dollars MORE, on Paxton. That's money that won't be available for all the other Senate seats that need to be defended. And if Paxton loses, it will be an even more bitter pill. Plus, once one Democrat gets a statewide foothold, many moderate Texans will see that the Democrats aren't the boogeymen that Fox said they were. Look at what happened once Arizona and North Carolina managed to elect a Democrat or two to high office.
  
  
• Another Free Agent: If Cornyn loses, he will join Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) as members of the upper chamber who can now vote their conscience. Or their desire for revenge. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is also a potential wild card since he is retiring, albeit for health reasons. See below for one of the implications therein that has already presented itself. At least in the short and medium term, it's not going to get easier for Trump to bend the Senate to his will, it's going to get harder. And by the way, the various Senate Republicans who were asked about the Paxton endorsement yesterday were either hopping mad, or refused to comment.
  
  
• Thune: Cassidy, and Tillis, and very likely Cornyn and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) are all folks who will have some meaningful power for the next 6 months, and then will leave Washington for the Old Senators' Home. Thune, by contrast, has a fair bit more power, and will not be gone in 6 months. If Trump is going to egregiously undermine the Senate Republican Conference, and is going to indulge in vendettas against Thune himself, the Majority Leader might become far less willing to support the things Trump wants. And he might become far more willing to support the things that Trump does not want. For example, if the Democrats take the House and impeach Trump, it's hard to imagine the votes are there for conviction in the Senate. However, Thune could say, "Well, it is our duty to have a proper trial, and so that is what we will do." Thune doesn't actually have to hold a trial, of course. Remember that the impeachment articles for then-DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas hit the circular file about 2 minutes after they were delivered to the desk of then-Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
  
  
• "The Lesson": The moral of the Cassidy story, and of the Massie story, is "Mess with Trump, and your career ends." That is not actually the moral of the Cornyn story, though, as he didn't really mess with Trump in any significant way. Sure, Cornyn was not always fire-breathing in his MAGA-ness, but he always fell into line, and when it was his turn to engage in some performative nonsense, such as sponsoring a bill to rename a Texas freeway after Trump, Cornyn swallowed hard and did his "duty."
  
  What brought Cornyn down was that one of his allies (Thune) angered Trump, and that Cornyn was challenged by someone more MAGA (and more corrupt, and thus more likely to do Trump's shady bidding). The Senator's doom was almost entirely out of his hands. And so the lesson here is: Kowtowing to Trump isn't all that useful, because that is not enough to save your career. One wonders if, particularly as Trump gets lame duckier, other members will start to conclude that there's no real purpose in pandering to the President, since he will eventually turn on you anyhow.

The polling of the Republican primary has been inconsistent, but there have basically been two types of results: (1) Paxton and Cornyn are neck-and-neck (4 of the 6 recent polls of the race), or (2) Paxton has a double-digit lead (the other 2 recent polls of the race, and the 2 most recent polls overall). With Trump on board, Paxton is now the overwhelming favorite to finish Cornyn off next Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Democratic nominee James Talarico (there was no runoff needed in his primary) has been cooling his jets and collecting lots of money. He has almost five times as much cash on hand as Paxton (about $10 million as compared to $2 million), and he's led in four of the last five polls of the hypothetical general election matchup with Paxton (and was tied in the fifth). So, Democrats have reason to be cautiously optimistic that this is finally the year the blue team breaks through in the Lone Star State. (Z & V)