Dem
47
GOP
53
TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out—is particularly apt these days, when it comes to the Iran war. It's accurate as metaphor, because Donald Trump wilted once again this week after threatening to unleash armageddon on Iran. And it's very nearly accurate in a literal sense, because he's running around like a chicken with its head cut off.
To start with, on Sunday night, the Commander-in-Chief posted this to his gallinaceous social media platform:
For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE! President DJT
This has to be what, the fifth or sixth time that Trump has hinted at either a nuclear strike, or a genocide of the Iranian people, or both?
We do not know who these messages are intended for. It can't be the Iranians, can it? They're not going to surrender just because Trump shook his fist at some clouds. Whoever the intended audience is, whether the Ayatollahs or someone else, nobody takes such verbiage from Trump seriously anymore. After all, TACO. And indeed, it took less than half a day before he backed off, at the "request" of Middle Eastern leaders. Trump said that he'll probably order the attack next week. Yeah, sure. And he'll also gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
This is not to say that Trump won't order an attack on Iran. He might, since he's got few other options, beyond running from Iran as fast as he can with his tail between his legs. Our point is that Trump is the world's worst poker player. Whenever he shows strength, he's bluffing. When he's quiet, THAT is when he might have something. Ipso facto, Trump bluster not only doesn't impress anyone, it pretty much makes clear that he's got 2-7 offsuit, and that he has no intention of pushing all-in.
That said, if Trump does try to attack Iran, he's got some pretty serious issues to be worried about. Such an attack would be very unpopular politically, and would commit him even more fully to the Iran War than is already the case. Further, the Pentagon is running out of smart missiles, and has awarded no new munitions contracts. So, Trump might not have the firepower to hit Iran again, unless he's willing to go nuclear, which would open up several additional unpleasant kettles of fish.
On the other hand, idling in neutral is not working so well for Trump right now, either. The first problem is that Congress is getting rambunctious. They know the deadline established by the War Powers Act has long been exceeded, and they are increasingly inclined to do something about it. Late last week, a bill that would rein Trump in failed to clear the House by the narrowest of margins, 212-212, with three Republicans (all in swingy districts) crossing the aisle to vote with the Democrats.
Yesterday, meanwhile, the Senate voted 50-47 to bring a similar measure to the floor of that chamber. This is far from the first time that this has been attempted, but now there are four Republican senators voting for the measure, up from three in previous weeks. The three GOP stalwarts are Susan Collins (ME), Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Rand Paul (KY). The new arrival at the party is... Bill Cassidy (LA). With John Fetterman (PA) crossing the aisle to vote with the Republicans, it means that just one more Republican defector is needed once the bill comes up for a vote. John Cornyn, perhaps?
On top of that, Trump says he does not care about Americans' pocketbooks. We don't know if that's true, but we do know that Americans care about their own pocketbooks, and that they will punish Republicans at the polls if the economy remains topsy-turvy over the next few months. Consequently, non-Trump Republicans, at least the ones up this year, also care about Americans' pocketbooks.
And the news on the economic front is... troubling. Starting with gas, because it's an obvious indicator that nearly everyone notices, the national price per gallon, on average, is $4.55/gal. This is up about a nickel from a week ago, and is up about 50 cents from a month ago. And the experts say that $5/gallon is likely just a matter of time.
And the gasbag's gas-bag-of-tricks is effectively empty. Trump ordered the largest one-week release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in U.S. history last week, and... it did not make a dent. Trump and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) are pushing to suspend the federal gas tax, but even if they are successful (far from a sure thing), the average driver would save about $9 a month. Hardly something to write home about.
But while gas is most noticeable to the average Joe and Jill, the more important indicator is certainly 30-year US Treasury yields, since those affect the entire economy, including interest rates, inflation, the stock market, etc. Right now, yields are at a 19-year high—in other words, the highest they have been since the Great Recession. This means it is more expensive for the government to borrow money, and thus more expensive for the government to pay its bills.
The executive summary is this: Trump can't back down because of his ego, and because of questions like "So, what exactly did we waste all that money and all those soldiers' lives for?" He can't move forward because it's not likely to work, and he doesn't have the munitions. And he can't keep doing nothing, because Congress is getting antsy and the economy is going off the rails. He's created quite a Gordian knot for himself, despite the fact that he undoubtedly has no idea what a Gordian knot even is. (Z)