Dem
47
GOP
53
A new Harper Polling poll of the North Carolina Senate race has Roy Cooper (D) ahead of Michael Whatley (R) 50% to 39%, a lead of 11 points. Cooper is at 50%, which is important, because even if all the undecideds break against him, which is very unlikely, he will still probably win.
This wasn't necessary. It happened because Donald Trump had a temper tantrum and drove Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) out of the race. Unless something very unexpected happens now, North Carolina is lost for the Republicans, and it didn't have to be like that. Tillis could very possibly have won, even if Cooper had entered the race, which he might not have done against a sitting senator.
Here are all the other public polls since March:
| Pollster | Dates | Cooper | Whatley | Net |
| Harper Polling | May 10-11 | 50% | 39% | Cooper+11 |
| Change Research | May 4-8 | 49% | 42% | Cooper +7 |
| Opinion Diagnostics | April 21-24 | 50% | 41% | Cooper +9 |
| High Point University | March 26-April 6 | 50% | 42% | Cooper +8 |
| Quantus Insights | March 31 - April 1 | 49% | 44% | Cooper +5 |
| Harper Polling | March 22-23 | 49% | 41% | Cooper +8 |
| YouGov | March 9-18 | 48% | 34% | Cooper +14 |
| PPP | March 13-14 | 47% | 44% | Cooper +3 |
The NRSC now has to make a decision, although it won't make it until at least next Wednesday. Should they abandon Whatley or fight for him? The decision is partly dependent on what happens in the Texas primary next week. If Ken Paxton wins that—and with Donald Trump's endorsement he probably will—the NRSC is going to have to spend at least $100 million, maybe as much as $300 million, to try to save Paxton. While the NRSC has a lot of money in the pot, its resources are not infinite, and there are crucial races in half a dozen other states as well. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), chair of the NRSC, could decide to cut Whatley loose and just concede the race so he can spend big in Texas. Losing that race would not only be another Senate seat, but it would give Democrats a template for winning in red states: Scour the seminaries, get seminarians elected to some lower office so they learn about campaigning, then run them for the Senate. It would also boost the morale of Texas Democrats immensely and make them contest every race henceforth.
North Carolina would be an especially tough—and expensive—race. Going negative against Cooper won't work because he has been in public office in the state since 1985. He is extremely well known and if he had any skeletons in his closet, they would have been discovered by now. The opposite approach, namely praising Whatley's achievements, also won't work because he has been a lobbyist and Republican apparatchik his whole life. He doesn't have any achievements the NRSC would want to talk about. So deciding to spend $100 million or more on a probably hopeless race when that money and more will be badly needed in Texas would be a tough call for Scott. Getting Texas oil billionaires to pony up to support Paxton (even though they secretly hate him) might be doable, but getting anyone to pony up for the hopeless Whatley might be much harder.
The Cooper-Whatley race has other implications besides the Senate seat for 6 years. The Tarheel State is purple. The governor, lieutentant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and superintendent of public instruction are all Democrats. The auditor, treasurer, and three commissioners are Republicans. Both senators are Republicans. If Cooper wins, then Democrats will pull out all stops to defeat Sen. Ted Budd (R-NC) in 2028 and in a presidential year, it might work, especially with Gov. Josh Stein (D-NC) on the ballot. If that seat flips, North Carolina will be on the way to becoming the next Virginia—a former deep red state that became a blue state. Republicans really don't want that, but their bulwark (Whatley) is very weak. (V)