May25

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Tomorrow's the Day

Tomorrow is the runoff in Texas between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Texas AG Ken Paxton (R). It could determine control of the Senate next year. We think it is likely (and polling supports that) Democrats will flip Maine (Susan Collins is very concerned) and North Carolina (Michael Whatley doesn't understand why he was told to run). If Republicans nominate Paxton tomorrow, the Democrats have their best shot in 40 years to elect a senator from Texas. If the Democratic candidate, James Talarico, wins in the general, then the Democrats need only hold their own seats and win one of the competitive races in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Montana, and Nebraska. The latter two feature independents, but they are almost certainly going to caucus with the Democrats if they win.

Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton, most likely because his gut tells him Paxton is going to win the primary and Trump loves to endorse a winner and hates to endorse a loser. With Trump's endorsement, Paxton is now the favorite. Here are all the polls that extended into May:

Cornyn really wants to win this one and the race has gotten really, really nasty. We are talking Texas nasty. Here is a typical recent Cornyn ad:

In the ad, the narrator accuses Paxton of supporting gender-affirming surgery for minors. Most of the ad is about that. It is an out-and-out lie. Paxton is wildly against such surgery or other gender-related treatment for minors and has issued legal opinions banning medical providers from providing it. Cornyn is simply desperate and is accusing Paxton of the worst thing he can think of, without regard to whether it is at all tethered to reality. We don't know why Cornyn is even running. He is 74 and has served Texas well for decades and could just take a well-deserved retirement. But it isn't only Democrats who can't bear the thought of giving up all their power.

Meanwhile, Paxton is so sure of winning that he has switched strategies and has been running positive ads the past few days. He says he wants to end on a positive note, so the final days will not have any ads attacking Cornyn. This could also possibly get some low-information independents to vote for Paxton tomorrow.

For the Democrats, Paxton is a made-to-order opponent. His corruption would make Albert Fall blush. He has been indicted but got away in a plea deal, and he was impeached by the Texas House but escaped conviction. His wife is divorcing him on "Biblical grounds." Maybe she caught him eating a cheeseburger or a pork chop, or wearing eyeglasses in church. She didn't say. Paxton is an oppo researcher's mother lode.

If Paxton wins the nomination, the shock waves will be felt as far away as Brooklyn. Republicans have said they are prepared to spend $300 million to get Paxton over the finish line first in November. What will the pro-Paxton super PACs say in their ads? They could say Paxton is very MAGA, but that will be counterproductive with the independents they need. They could talk about Paxton's great track record as AG, but that won't appeal to independents either. What then?

Our expectation is that Republicans will run against Talarico as they would have against Jasmine Crockett, had she won the primary. They will accuse Talarico of being far to the left of Karl Marx and more woke than Crockett and former representative Cori Bush combined and squared. Every sentence in every ad will contain the word "woke" at least once. Texans don't even know what that means, but they know it is bad. It will be woke woke woke woke woke every woke day, all the woke-long day.

How will Talarico handle this? He hasn't let on what his strategy will be yet, but he has a boatload of money and will get a lot more if Paxton wins his primary, so we will find out soon enough. He could focus on telling people that he is from the Christian wing of Christianity—you know, those people who actually know what Jesus said and believe it (Hint: the Sermon on the Mount was not about boys playing on girls soccer teams or how best to punish gay people for the sin of being gay). He will quote the Bible a lot, and as a seminary student, knows what is actually in there and can probably find choice lines to talk about, like Jesus' attitude toward poor people.

There haven't been a lot of general election polls yet. We can assure you that the drought will end this week. Here are the polls since April:

Early polls probably don't mean much because a massive wave of television ads will be forthcoming. Nevertheless, it could be a real horse race, with a lot at stake. (V)