Dem
47
GOP
53
Many Democrats are moaning that Donald Trump was able to defeat Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), and likely John Cornyn. The Contrarian takes a different view. After all, they are contrarians. What they see is that from now on, all Republicans will slavishly do whatever Trump orders them to do. The Contrarians see that as good. Huh? Yes, that is their view. What Trump wants is generally unpopular with most of the voters and having all House and Senate Republicans do things the voters don't like is just going to give the Democrats more ammo in November. It allows Democrats to say: "My opponent is Trump's puppet. If you want to be represented by Trump's puppet, vote for him. If you want somebody to represent YOU, vote for me."
Jennifer Rubin knocked the legacy media for constantly writing about how Trump has an iron grip on the Republican Party. She wrote: "However, the underlying assumption of these stories—that Trump remains a powerhouse in American politics—defies reality. Instead of a colossus, he has become a big fish in a shrinking, fetid pond of MAGA loyalists."
It is a good point. By focusing only on the primaries—which is where all his leverage is—Trump is ignoring the bigger picture, namely winning general elections. Primaries in deep-red districts and states where no Republican could possibly lose are perhaps safe, but if Ken Paxton wins the GOP nomination in the Texas Senate race and then goes on to lose the general election to James Talarico, Trump's power suddenly looks a lot less. If Roy Cooper is elected senator in North Carolina because Trump forced Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) out, Rubin's point is even stronger. The more Trump attacks, vilifies, and defeats normie Republicans in order to replace them with crazy loyalists, the better it is for the Democrats.
And even if Paxton wins the general election, Trump is not out of the woods. Starting on Jan. 3, 2027, every time Paxton says some crazy thing (i.e., every day), Democrats are going to record that to make him the face of the Republican Party in 2028. This is just the reverse of the Republicans making former representative Cori "Defund the Police" Bush the face of the Democratic Party.
An additional problem for the Republican Party that Trump is creating by trying to stuff it with loyalists is that Trump will not be on the ballot in 2028. But if the party is full of Trumpists, they will support other Trumpists for offices up and down the line. People like J.D. Vance and Don Jr. lack Trump's charisma, so if the Republican Party is full of Trumpists, it will be difficult for the party to move beyond Trump when he has exited stage right. Trumpism without Trump is not going to sell well. (V)