Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump's "Iran problem," of course, is that everyone sees that the Iranians have boxed him into a corner and he can't get out. The solution: Start a war with Cuba. After all, Trump's strategy is always to pick on someone weaker than himself. Then he can win easily. It worked in Venezuela, and Cuba is even weaker than Venezuela. He thought Iran was weak, too, but it turns out Iran was willing to absorb much more punishment than he thought and didn't capitulate. Worse yet, Iran turned the Strait of Hormuz into a nuclear weapon—with no radioactive fallout, but plenty of economic fallout. Trump thinks Cuba will be a pushover.
The upshot here is that to distract from Epstein, Trump went after Iran. To distract from Iran, he is seriously thinking of going after Cuba. If that goes south, he could go after Greenland to distract from Cuba. Last week, the DoJ indicted Raúl Castro on murder charges resulting from downing two planes 30 years ago. It would be simple if the 94-year-old Castro flew to Miami to stand trial, but what if he decides he'd rather not? Send in the Marines to go fetch him? It could work, but Castro has been forewarned and so have the Russian and Chinese intelligence people on the island who will do their best to protect him. The Cuban people have been warned to expect an invasion and instructed to resist it. An attempt to extradite Castro could lead to Marines being killed or, perhaps worse, captured.
Suppose Trump is successful and captures Castro. Is that it? Castro is not running Cuba now. The leader is President Miguel Díaz-Canel. Would he remain in place? If he is captured, too, who would run Cuba? There is no vice president.
What Trump is good at is thinking of outcomes (like arresting Castro). What Trump is bad at is figuring out how to achieve those outcomes, what the likely consequences of trying are, and how to deal with them. For example, if Trump attempts a full-blown military invasion to capture Castro and fighting breaks out, that could prompt a flood of refugees, which will put Trump in a bind. He doesn't like immigrants. If he accepts these, much of his anti-immigrant base will be furious. But if he doesn't accept them, many of the Cubans in Florida will be furious. If the extraction is completely successful and Cuba instantly turns into a shining example of a capitalist democracy, many Cuban-Americans in Florida may go back, thus reducing Trump's base. The only scenario Trump can think about is a clean surgical extraction of Castro with no side effects, but that might not be so easy if Castro is hiding. Do the Marines search every house in case he is there? What if Castro is hiding—in Moscow?
What could possibly go wrong?
On the other hand, maybe Trump thought of a different solution: Just give up, give Iran everything it wants, get the Strait of Hormuz open, and proclaim victory. His base will eat it up and he doesn't care what anyone else thinks. In fact, yesterday, a story was floated that a deal to open the Strait was imminent. All that was needed was agreement on Iran's nuclear program. Of course, Iran has no plans to abandon its program, so the agreement may not be forthcoming. Well, unless Trump agrees to accept a vague and unenforceable promise from Iran not to build a nuclear bomb.
Many Republican hawks are scared to death that is precisely the plan: Give Iran everything it wants, get nothing, and call it a victory. Call it the TACO plan. The hawks don't trust Iran for a second and are afraid Trump will just fall for some vague and meaningless promise because the war is costing him too much approval rating.
Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee Roger Wicker (R-MS) put out a statement that begins as follows: "We are at a moment that will define President Trump's legacy. His instincts have been to finish the job he started in Iran, but he is being ill-advised to pursue a deal that would not be worth the paper it is written on." Wicker knows what time it is and is smart enough not to blame Trump, but instead his advisers. Still, clearly Wicker is afraid Trump will sell out the United States to get his approval rating back on track. It will be clearer if Wicker is right when the details are published. Given the recent willingness of Senate Republicans to push back on the ballroom and Slushgate, Wicker and others might be willing to push back on a crummy deal. Wicker is not up again until 2030, and as chairman of Armed Services, he has the cover to lead the pushing. Wicker is also a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force Reserve, which gives him some extra credibility. (V)