Dem
47
GOP
53
The conventional wisdom says that unpopular presidents are a drag on their party in midterms. The smart ones try to keep a low profile, showing up only in places where they are still popular. But Donald Trump does not do conventional wisdom. On Friday he showed up to campaign for Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) in NY-17, in the Hudson Valley, a D+1 district Kamala Harris carried by 6.4 points. Lawler is acting like he was happy to have Trump there, but who knows if he really was. On the whole, since Trump is unpopular in the district, Lawler allowing himself to be linked to Trump is iffy at best.
Trump's pitch was that Lawler was the driving force in making him raise the highly unpopular SALT tax limit. In other words, Lawler made more of your state and local taxes deductible on your federal tax form, so vote for him.
This doesn't feel quite right. Trump spoke in the village of Suffern. The surrounding Rockland County town of Ramapo has a very heavy concentration of Hasidic and Orthodox Jews, with a number of kosher supermarkets. In contrast to the wealthy suburbanites elsewhere in the district, the Ramapoans (Ramaponians?) voted very heavily for Trump in 2024 because nearly all of them are one-issue voters, with the issue being unquestioned support of Israel.
The town has substantial pockets of poverty due to the very large Hasidic families and lack of economic opportunities nearby. A voter with 7 or 8 children and a low-income job is probably not so interested in whether the SALT deduction is up to $10,000 or up to $40,000 because property values in the town are low, so property taxes are also low. In other words, Trump either had the right town but the wrong message or the right message but the wrong town. If he wanted to talk about taxes somewhere in NY-17, Briarcliff Manor would have been a better choice. There the median household income is $230,000 and the average is $320,000. Those folks care about local taxes much more than the folks in Ramapo. But Trump probably knew his stance on Israel would go over well with Hasidic voters, so he apparently decided to go to a place where he would be cheered, rather than one where Lawler's great achievement would be valued. Once again, it is all about him. (V)