Dem
47
GOP
53
We mean members of Congress, not... any other kind of members.
Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) is the son of a former governor of New Jersey and the kind of moderate Republican who can win in a New Jersey district with a PVI of EVEN. But, for 2½ months, he has not voted on the floor of the House and is nowhere to be seen. He hasn't appeared in public since March 5 and has missed 90 roll call votes since then.
For anyone in an EVEN district to vanish from sight is very unusual. Members in such competitive districts try to be in the news all the time and want to be seen helping people in the district as often as possible. The speculation is that Kean has a serious undisclosed health problem. He probably has excellent health insurance—all members of Congress do. It's just his constituents who don't.
Democrats are already salivating at the prospect of running against him. There is a four-way Democratic primary a week from today. The four Democrats are Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot; Tina Shah, a physician; Michael Roth, a former Small Business Administration official and Brian Varela, a businessman. Bennett is the establishment favorite and her background parallels that of Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ). They even have the same name. The governor's actual name is Rebecca Michelle Sherrill. Mikie is a nickname her father gave her when she was 2 and it stuck.
While it may not be polite, the Democrat who advances is going to demonstrate his or her health by being filmed jogging, doing pushups, playing tennis, or other things that require exertion. Then, they will say the people of NJ-07 deserve a physically fit representative who will be there for them full-time. Kean's health is likely to become a big issue—unless he gives up and drops out.
New Jersey Democrats currently hold a 9D, 3R majority in their congressional delegation. If they beat Kean, it will be 10D, 2R. With a huge effort, which would require a voter-approved constitutional amendment, they might be able to make it 11D, 1R. If they win the seat in November, they could decide it isn't worth the redistricting effort to flip one more seat.
One oddity here is that despite his absence from Congress, Kean was able to approve his chief of staff's junkets paid for by special interest groups. Dan Scharfenberger got permission to go to Las Vegas and then Middleburg, VA. Our staff cartographer confirms that neither one is in New Jersey. Kean is also not so sick that he can't trade stocks. From March 10 to March 31, he bought or sold stocks in eight companies. The total value of the trades was between $50,000 and $190,000.
Meanwhile, the Democrats have their own vanishing House member. It's Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-FL), who is 83, and has missed more than 50 votes since going AWOL about 6 weeks ago. She has been a little less secretive than Kean, and says she is recovering from eye surgery. That said, she (or more likely her staff) have been recycling photos from last year on the Representative's social media accounts. They are not trying to pass them off as new, but they are also not doing anything to discourage people from thinking that.
The good news for the blue team, such as it is, is that the new Florida maps make Wilson's district (FL-24) very blue; its new PVI is D+34. So, there is little Wilson could do to cause it to flip, short of it coming out that she is actually hiding out at Epstein Island or Mar-a-Lago. However, the filing deadline for House primaries in Florida is June 12, so Wilson's age and extended absence might cause a serious Democratic challenger to jump in. But still, unlike Kean's seat, this one is safe. (V & Z)