May27

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Roasted Cornyn

Nobody particularly expected Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) to survive yesterday's runoff election in Texas. At the same time, nobody foresaw how very badly he would be crushed by Texas AG Ken Paxton (R). The results are in, and Paxton won the GOP nomination for the Texas U.S. Senate seat, 63.9% to 36.1%. That is a staggering 27.8-point victory.

There is good news and bad news here for Democrats. The good news is that James Talarico (D) has drawn the far weaker of his two potential opponents. It took the folks at Cook Political Report about 10 seconds, after the race was called, to move it from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican." It also took Talarico about 10 seconds to make this statement: "I want to thank Senator John Cornyn for his years representing our state. We don't agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service. To Senator Cornyn's supporters: you have a place in our campaign."

The bad news is that none of the pollsters foresaw a Cornyn defeat of such epic proportions. The biggest margin we saw was Paxton +22, and even that poll was an outlier. All the others had the race somewhere between "toss up" and "Paxton +12 to +14." It's very well established that pollsters have difficulty measuring MAGA Trump voters. Do they also have difficulty measuring MAGA Paxton voters? It's possible. Certainly, it's something to keep in mind when those pollsters begin projecting the Talarico-Paxton matchup.

And now, a rundown of the other races of interest:

• State AG, Republican Runoff: The winner here is state Sen. Mayes Middleton, who is also an oil company president. Undoubtedly, that will create no conflicts of interest when he is inevitably elected AG in November. Middleton dispatched Rep. Chip Roy, who is a giant gasbag, 55.2% to 44.8%. Very few folks in Washington, on either side of the aisle, will be sad to see Roy's career reach the end of the road.
  
  
• TX-18, Democratic Runoff: The redrawing of Texas' maps, to be even more friendly to Republicans, set off a game of musical chairs among several incumbents. Two of those incumbents decided to try their luck with this district, which was left vacant by the death of Sheila Jackson Lee (D). The two contenders were Al Green, who is more of an "Old Guard" Democrat, at 78 years of age, and Christian Menefee, who is more of a "New Guard" Democrat at just 38 years of age. The young whippersnapper took this one, 69.5% to 30.5%. The district, which is centered on Houston, is very blue, at D+29, so Menefee will win in the general.
  
  
• TX-33, Democratic Runoff: Colin Allred gave up this seat to run for the U.S. Senate, and was replaced by Rep. Julie Johnson (D). Then, Allred decided the Senate was not for him, and that he'd like his old job back. He'll get it, as he knocked off Johnson last night, 53.9% to 46.1%. This district is also very blue, at D+18, so it's all over but the shoutin'.
  
  
• TX-35, Democratic Runoff: At R+4, with maps that might not be quite as correct as the Texas GOP hopes they are, and with a potential blue wave looming, this is probably the Democrats' biggest target in the state (the only districts that are closer, by PVI, are both already occupied by Democrats).
  
  However, before the blue team could lean into winning this one, it first had to rid itself of Maureen Galindo. She is a novice politician and a sex therapist whose views are just a wee bit antisemitic. For example, she said that she would like to see all Zionists castrated and imprisoned. She also suggested, at various points, that many and/or most Zionists are pedophiles. Eventually, she clarified that she does not want to lock up ALL the Jews in the country, just some of them.
  
  The DCCC spent substantial money to defeat Galindo, running commercials that referred to her as "MAGA Maureen." Meanwhile, the Republicans did so much rat**cking, they could have populated all of New York City. We cannot help but paraphrase an old line: "You know what you call someone who supports and funds an antisemite? You call them an antisemite." Certainly, this race might afford some useful insight into which party actually opposes antisemitism, and which party only opposes it when it's expedient.
  
  The Democrats got what they wanted; Gallindo was crushed by Deputy Sheriff Johnny C. Garcia, 63.8% to 36.2%. So, not only is the district now in play for the Democrats, but they're not saddled with someone the Republicans would have tried to make the face of the entire party.
  
  
• TX-35, Republican Runoff: There was actually some drama on the Republican side of the TX-35 contest, though not as much as on the Democratic side. In this case, in a fairly rare occurrence, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) split from Donald Trump, with the Governor backing state Rep. John Lujan and the President backing businessman Carlos De La Cruz, who is also the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-TX). Trump came out on top, yet again, as De La Cruz took 57.6% of the vote to 42.4% for Lujan.

So, last night, we learned the identity of some members of the next Congress (e.g. Menefee, Allred), and we also learned what some of the most notable November races are going to be (e.g., Talarico vs. Cornyn).

In the shorter term, however, the biggest impact of last night's elections might be this: Cornyn is now a free agent, free to speak and vote as he sees fit, for any reason he sees fit. There are now at least four such Republican senators; in addition to Cornyn are Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Thom Tillis (R-NC). If those four stick together, they can potentially frustrate Trump's agenda (true, John Fetterman, D-PA, may cross the aisle, but Rand Paul, R-KY, might do the same and cancel the Pennsylvanian out).

These four Republicans, all of whom are Reagan Republicans, and none of whom are actually MAGA, are in a position, for example, to demand that if Trump wants his reconciliation bill, he has to kill the slush fund. They are also in a position to pass a bill limiting Trump's ability to extend the war in Iran, since such bills are not filibusterable. In other words, it's not close to July 4 yet, but you should still get ready for some fireworks. (Z)