May27

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

California, Here We Come

Now that the second-most-populous state is done with its primaries and runoffs, it's time for the most populous state to take its turn. We'll have a preview of the most important races on Monday of next week, but we think we need to do an update on the very most important race, the governorship, right now. Not only do California governors have national importance, due to the fact that California laws and standards often become de facto national laws and standards (e.g., vehicle emissions), but these days the governor of California is also the de facto leader of the Trump resistance.

There have been three polls of the race released in the last week or so. Here they are, from newest to oldest, and including every candidate who polled at least 5% in at least one of the three:

Note that these are all partisan houses; Echelon is (R) and the other two are (D). However, especially this close to an election, they want to prove that their numbers are accurate so that candidates (and other interested parties) will hire them. So, the numbers are probably trustworthy.

The story these polls tell is an even clearer one than the last time that we did a rundown like this. To wit:

• There is going to be a Republican in the final round, and that Republican is going to be Steve Hilton.
  
  
• The other Republican, Chad Bianco, is sinking like a stone. He has not placed second in any poll since mid-April, a few days after Donald Trump endorsed Hilton. The only reason for Trump to endorse Hilton was to record a "win"; in so doing, the President cost his party their only slim chance of winning the California governorship (i.e., a Republican vs. Republican general election matchup). Rarely has Trump provided such a clear object lesson about his priorities when it comes to making endorsements. Though, that said, Texas was also a pretty clear object lesson.
  
  
• The Democrat who faces off against Hilton, barring a major last-second development (a June surprise?), or a grievous polling error, is going to be either Tom Steyer or Xavier Becerra.
  
  
• Who knows what Katie Porter and Matt Mahan are telling themselves. Even more mysterious is what Antonio Villaraigosa is telling himself. He can't even crack the mid-single-digits, and yet (Z) gets a mailer from his campaign every single day these days.

Consistent with all of this—that next week's election really just boils down to Steyer vs. Becerra for second place—things have gotten extremely nasty when it comes to those two, with each being pelted with copious amounts of mud. For example, Steyer has an ongoing mini-scandal, wherein he is accused of paying social media influencers to say positive things about him, without revealing that they've been compensated for their opinions. Becerra also has an ongoing mini-scandal, wherein he is accused of trying to inflate a Black defendant's IQ, so that the defendant would be eligible for the death penalty. One of those things seems rather more serious to us than the other, but it doesn't matter how things seem to us. What matters is how they seem to California primary voters.

Interestingly, the four people whose endorsement might settle this once and for all—Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff (both D-CA) and Kamala Harris—have pointedly remained silent. These folks clearly don't have a problem making primary endorsements, as they have all endorsed in other races (indeed, Schiff even endorsed in THIS race, but then he withdrew it when Eric Swalwell turned out to be a sleazeball). Maybe they don't want to hitch their wagons to problematic candidates. Or maybe Donald Trump isn't the only one who doesn't want to be on the side of a loser.

We are often asked to guess which of the two Democrats will advance, and thus will be the overwhelming favorite to become the next governor of California. Obviously, the polls aren't too much help here. So, we will base our guess on the fact that everyone knows the next governor will become Trump Foil #1. Becerra is kind of a wallflower/technocrat, and Steyer is kind of a loudmouth. A left-leaning loudmouth is a pretty good counter to a right-leaning loudmouth, particularly if that left-leaning loudmouth was actually a successful businessman, as opposed to just playing one on TV. So, our guess is Steyer. (Z)