Dem
47
GOP
53
Several times, in the last week or so, we've considered writing an item on the state of the Iran War. We've even put the links together, and sketched out a broad outline of what we might say. But the ultimate conclusion these days is always: "Eh, what's the point?" Every time Donald Trump claims that [X] is happening, or has been agreed to, or is about to be resolved, Iran says it's not true. Every time Iran claims that [Y] is happening, or has been agreed to, or is about to be resolved, Trump (or someone else in the White House) says it's not true. At this point, it's not news; it's just gossip.
Yesterday, there was finally something worth noting, though it has nothing to do with progress toward a resolution. In fact, it is an indication of a lack of progress. During a Cabinet meeting, Trump was talking about the conditions under which he wants the Strait of Hormuz to re-open; essentially that everyone gets passage without regard to nationality (the careful reader might notice that is what the world already had... before Trump decided to indulge in a poorly thought out war). Someone at the Cabinet meeting pointed out that Oman, an American ally, might want increased control over the Strait. And Trump casually responded, "Oman will behave just like everybody else. Or else we'll have to blow them up. They understand that. They'll be fine."
Can you imagine what would happen if, say, the leader of Syria, or Yemen, or Lebanon or, for that matter, Oman offhandedly told reporters that if the United States did not fall into line, it might just be necessary to blow the Americans up? There would be American carrier groups en route to that nation within the hour. This is simply not something you say if you are the nation's leader—not accidentally, not to make a point, not as a joke, not under any circumstances. Oh, and by the way, the White House was so proud of that moment that it quickly posted the clip to social media.
This... concerning remark has caused a number of outlets to compile a list of all the nations that Trump has threatened to invade, attack, or otherwise use force against. Here they all are, organized by term:
| First Term | Second Term |
| Mexico North Korea |
Canada Colombia Cuba Greenland/Denmark Iran Iraq Mexico Nigeria Oman Panama Somalia Syria Venezuela Yemen |
Countries in bold are the ones Trump has actually attacked, at least once.
It could not be clearer that, during his first term, Trump was reluctant to threaten other nations with violence, much less to act on it. This term, the gloves are off. We aren't entirely sure how to explain the difference. Maybe, once you get a taste of blood, you warm up to it. Maybe it's Trump's growing lack of mental discipline. Maybe it's that he no longer has to think about being reelected. Maybe it's Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Maybe first-term Trump didn't need to distract attention from the Epstein Files, and second-term Trump does. Could be any of these things, we suppose.
We mention this because while we don't believe Trump will actually attack Oman, we think an attack on Cuba is inevitable, and probably imminent. The indictment of Raúl Castro last week was clearly a predicate to that, setting up an excuse for the administration, not unlike Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. And yesterday, it was reported that the Pentagon has been very careful not to remove any military assets from the area around Cuba, even while it's trying to find enough firepower to send to Iran.
So, get ready for the United States' second war in Cuba. The first one was pretty brief (4 months), relatively painless, and worked out pretty OK in the end. We do not foresee the same thing happening this time. And if the Cubans decide this is their opportunity to strike against Guantanamo Bay, it could get downright ugly. There are 3,100 military personnel and another 3,000 civilians there, and it would not take much to exact a death toll far greater than the U.S. has experienced in the Iran War (13 soldiers, thus far). (Z)