Dem
47
GOP
53
We are obviously very, very interested in the Texas U.S. Senate race. Beyond the fact that the two candidates offer such a stark choice to Texas voters, it's almost certainly the single-most important general election race on the calendar. The California governor's race is also important, but that one will likely be settled by the primary next week, with the general election contest serving only as a coronation.
That is why this is our fifth item of the week about the showdown between Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) and state Sen. James Talarico. Every day, at least right now, there's news that we think is both interesting and relevant. At the moment, we have four things worth passing along.
To start, there's a new poll of the race, from Public Policy Polling. It was conducted before the primary, but after Donald Trump made his last-minute endorsement, such that the pollster did not even bother to ask about Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). There were eight questions about Paxton, but nary a one about Cornyn.
The topline number is that 45% of respondents preferred Talarico, as compared to 38% for Paxton. So, that's obviously Talarico +7. Of greater interest, perhaps, is some of the crosstabs. Talarico is viewed favorably by 41% of respondents, unfavorably by 35%, for a net of +6. Paxton is viewed favorably by 30%, unfavorably by 56%, for a net of -26. On the question of "Which candidate do you think will better address your personal economic concerns and issues?", Talarico comes out on top by 13 points, 49% to 36%. On the question of "Which candidate do you think will better represent your personal values in office?", Talarico comes out on top by 15 points, 51% to 36%. If Paxton is going to win this thing, he's going to need that (R) next to his name to do a lot of heavy lifting.
We should note that while the pollster here, PPP, is legitimate, the survey was commissioned by a Democratic-leaning PAC. The potential problem, in that case, is not that the numbers are screwy, it's that the entity paying for the poll might selectively release only those polls that favor their side. Probably not a problem here, because we doubt the commissioning PAC (Lone Star Rising PAC) has paid for two or three or four polls in the last week, and then only released the best one. Still, we mention it, so readers can reach their own conclusions.
Moving along, in our rundown yesterday, we noted that Paxton has an ugly divorce trial coming up, one in which his "Biblical" indiscretions will take center stage. As it turns out, we missed an even larger scandal in which he is currently enmeshed. The full story is a little complicated, but goes something like this: Adam Hoffman, an attorney in Waco, TX, was accused of raping a young boy, multiple times, over a 3-year span. The local prosecutor recused himself from the case (since Hoffman and the prosecutor had previously had professional dealings).
Paxton's office took over the case, tried it, and the result was a hung jury. Rather than re-try Hoffman, a plea deal was reached by which Hoffman would be sentenced on lesser charges, would lose his law license for 5 years, would serve 1 day in jail, and would NOT have to register as a sex offender. The judge in the case was so appalled by the leniency that he insisted the jail sentence be increased. It was, to 60 days, and Hoffman walked after 29 days, thanks to credit for time served (-1 day) and good behavior (-30 days).
There has been a fair bit of buck-passing in the case. Paxton claims that the victim was so traumatized, he was unwilling or unable to endure a second trial. So, the plea deal was made to spare him. The victim's mother says she was OK with the general notion of a plea deal, so as to protect her son, but that she is very unhappy about the deal that was hammered out. What's indisputable here is that Hoffman is guilty of sex crimes, and that he's now walking the streets, with no particular constraints on his ability to commit additional sex crimes, thanks to Paxton.
We think it's fair to say that, in the Epstein Era, this is an even worse liability than a messy divorce. Certainly, Talarico thinks so. He's not been shy about mentioning the plea deal in interviews on a regular basis. "I think if Paxton is worried about freaks," the would-be senator has observed, "He should stop giving Epstein-style sweetheart deals to pedophiles." That, uh... that stings.
By virtue of his many years as AG, there are other black marks on Paxton's prosecutorial record. An accused sex trafficker named Rakim Sharkey also got a lenient plea deal in which he got probation and was also kept out of the sex offender registry. There was also a murder-for-hire case where the defendant was allowed to cop a misdemeanor plea and to serve a 4-day jail sentence. It won't be too hard for Team Talarico to figure out how to use these incidents in campaign ads. All they have to do is watch the ads put out by Cornyn's campaign, which highlighted all three apparent miscarriages of justice.
Our next bit of news involves fundraising. In the 24 hours after the Texas primary crowned Paxton as the Republican nominee, the Talarico campaign raised more than $3 million. That is the single-best day Talarico has had so far, even outpacing the $2.5 million he raised in the 24 hours after the censored Stephen Colbert interview. Further, $3 million is more than Paxton's entire current bankroll ($2.6 million). Overall, Talarico has about five times as much money in the bank as Paxton does. That gives the Democrat an advantage when it comes to the first wave of commercials, which will frame the overall campaign. We'd guess Texans are about to hear a whole lot about the lenient treatment of sexual predators.
And finally, on the lighter side of things, reader J.R. in Austin, TX, brought to our attention the t-shirts that Talarico is selling on his website. There are two designs worth noting, starting with this one:
Obviously, as J.R. in Austin observed in their message to us, Talarico is taking lemons (the insulting play on his name bestowed by Paxton) and making lemonade. One cannot help but think of how "deplorables" was appropriated by, and became a rallying cry for, MAGA.
The other shirt that caught our notice is this one:
For those who don't follow, it's a soundbite Talarico uses a lot, and a reference to Jesus overturning the tables of corrupt money changers in the temple. It is, of course, a metaphor for fighting back hard against political corruption and billionaire donors and politicians. Including, you know, billionaire presidents. We are reminded of what we wrote earlier this week about meeting people where they are.
We probably won't have another week where we write an item every single day about the Texas Senate race. But we do think it is going to provide fuel for a lot of items in the next 5 months or so. (Z)